Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict
Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict
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DOI：
10.1177/0738894210388125
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Schrodt, Philip A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brandt, Patrick T.;Freeman, John R.;Schrodt, Philip A.
我们提出了一个预测和分析区域和国际冲突的框架。它产生的预测（1）是准确的，但考虑到不确定性，（2）是（近）真实的时间，（3）捕捉演员的同时行为，（4）纳入先验信念，（5）产生政策或有预测。我们结合联合收割机的CAMEO事件编码框架与马尔可夫转换和贝叶斯向量自回归模型，以满足这些目标。我们的例子对2010年以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之间的物质冲突进行了一系列预测。我们预测，与2009年相比，2010年这些交战方之间的实质性冲突将有所增加。
We propose a framework for forecasting and analyzing regional and international conflicts. It generates forecasts that (1) are accurate but account for uncertainty, (2) are produced in (near) real time, (3) capture actors' simultaneous behaviors, (4) incorporate prior beliefs, and (5) generate policy contingent forecasts. We combine the CAMEO event-coding framework with Markov-switching and Bayesian vector autoregression models to meet these goals. Our example produces a series of forecasts for material conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians for 2010. Our forecast is that the level of material conflict between these belligerents will increase in 2010, compared to 2009.