VALUE: A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies
VALUE: A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies
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DOI：
10.1002/2014ef000259
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发表时间：
2015-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Maraun;M. Widmann;J. Gutiérrez;S. Kotlarski;R. Chandler;E. Hertig;J. Wibig;R. Huth;R. Wilcke
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文献类型：
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作者：
D. Maraun;M. Widmann;J. Gutiérrez;S. Kotlarski;R. Chandler;E. Hertig;J. Wibig;R. Huth;R. Wilcke
VALUE是一个开放的欧洲网络，用于验证和比较气候变化研究的降尺度方法。VALUE旨在促进气候学家、影响建模者、统计学家和利益相关者之间的合作和知识交流，以建立一个跨学科的降尺度社区。VALUE的一个关键交付成果是制定一个系统的验证框架，以便能够对动态和统计降尺度方法进行评估和比较。在本文中，我们提出了这个框架的关键成分。VALUE的主要验证方法是以用户为中心：从特定的用户问题开始，验证树指导相关验证指标和性能度量的选择。已经设计了几个实验来隔离在降尺度过程中可能发生问题的特定点：什么是隔离的降尺度技巧？统计方法和动力学方法如何比较？方法在不同的空间尺度上如何执行？这些方法在代表区域气候变化方面失败了吗？区域气候的总体代表性如何，包括从全球气候模式继承的误差？该框架将是一个全面的社区开放降尺度相互比较研究的基础，但也旨在为其他验证研究提供一般指导。
VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE's main approach to validation is user‐ focused: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community‐open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.