Tree-ring based runoff reconstruction of the upper Fenhe River basin, North China, since 1799 AD
Tree-ring based runoff reconstruction of the upper Fenhe River basin, North China, since 1799 AD
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DOI：
10.1016/j.quaint.2012.03.044
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发表时间：
2013-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Junyan Sun;Yu Liu;Yanchao Wang;G. Bao;B. Sun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Junyan Sun;Yu Liu;Yanchao Wang;G. Bao;B. Sun
为了获得干旱历史的长期视角，我们基于华北汾河源头关岑山的油松树轮宽度指数，首次对汾河流域上游3月至7月的径流进行了重建。重建解释了1952年至2008年工具径流量方差的54.8%。径流年际变化分析表明，公元2001年不仅是工具工具期最干旱的年份，也是自公元1799年以来汾河上游最干旱的年份。该地区 20 世纪出现的极端单年干旱比 19 世纪还要多。多年和十年尺度的干旱状况分析表明，仪器径流低估了汾河流域未来潜在的严重和长期干旱，例如类似于1831-1842年和1919-1929年仪器前多年干旱的干旱。汾河径流重建与附近其他降水重建的比较表明，中国北部和西北部分地区的干旱发生在一定程度上是同步的。过去211年。径流数据与网格化帕尔默干旱指数数据集的空间相关性分析表明，汾河上游3-7月平均径流重建代表了华北地区尤其是整个汾河流域的区域水分变化。对于春季干旱频率最高、严重程度最高的山西省来说，径流重建可以为汾河流域乃至整个山西省的历史干旱分析和水资源规划管理提供基础数据。
To acquire long-term perspectives on the history of droughts, we have presented the first runoff reconstruction from March to July in the upper Fenhe River basin, based on Pinus tabulaeformis tree-ring width indices from the Guancen Mountains, headstream of the Fenhe River, North China. The reconstruction explains 54.8% of the instrumental runoff variance over the period from 1952 to 2008. An analysis of interannual runoff variability indicated that AD 2001 was not only the driest year for the instrumental period, but also the driest year since AD 1799 in the upper Fenhe River. More extreme single-year droughts existed in the 20th century than in the 19th century in the region. Multiyear and decadal scale dry regime analyses demonstrated that the instrumental runoff underestimated the potential severe and prolonged droughts in the Fenhe River basin in future, such as droughts similar to the multiyear pre-instrumental droughts from 1831 to 1842 and 1919 to 1929. Comparisons between the Fenhe River runoff reconstruction and other nearby precipitation reconstructions showed that drought occurrence has been synchronous in parts of north and northwestern China to some extent for the last 211 years. Spatial correlation analyses between runoff data and the gridded Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset indicated that the average runoff reconstruction from March to July in the upper Fenhe River represents the regional moisture variations in North China, especially in the entire Fenhe River basin. As for the highest frequency and severity of spring drought in Shanxi province, the runoff reconstruction can provide base data for historical drought analysis and water resource planning and management in the Fenhe River basin or even to entire Shanxi province.