Déjà Vu All Over Again: A post-Cold War empirical analysis of Samuel Huntington’s ‘Clash of Civilizations’ Theory
Déjà Vu All Over Again: A post-Cold War empirical analysis of Samuel Huntington’s ‘Clash of Civilizations’ Theory
复制标题
似曾相识：冷战后对塞缪尔·亨廷顿“文明冲突”理论的实证分析
DOI：
10.1177/0010836709347215
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
N. Charron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Charron
许多媒体将西方世界和穆斯林世界之间的冲突描述为“文明冲突”（CoC），这再次引发了围绕塞缪尔·亨廷顿 CoC 理论价值的许多问题。先前的实证检验使用州际层面的低水平冲突或国家以下层面的暴力冲突来分析他的理论。前者几乎没有或没有证明他的理论得到实证支持，而后者的结果则好坏参半。这一分析在很多方面补充了之前的实证研究。第一，实证模型仅在后冷战时代测试CoC。第二，正如之前的研究所做的那样，除了研究国家间军事争端的文明决定因素之外，我还纳入了专门关注国家间战争的模型，因为亨廷顿经常指出国家之间的行为准则将导致暴力政治冲突。最后，这项研究直接检验了亨廷顿的文明“断层线”和伊斯兰“血腥边界”假设。我进行了扩展，发现在后冷战时代，文明内部的冲突相对较少。与早期的分析相反，这些数据显示了对 CoC 的强有力的实证支持，特别是在关注冷战后时代的暴力国际冲突时，并且在用国际危机的替代数据检验假设时，结果是可靠的。
Many in the media have depicted conflicts between the Western and Muslim worlds as a ‘Clash of Civilizations’ (CoC), and this has revived many of the questions surrounding the value of Samuel Huntington’s CoC theory. Previous empirical tests have analysed his theory using low-level conflict at the interstate level or violent conflict at the subnational level. The former have demonstrated little or no empirical support for his theory, while the results in the latter group are mixed. This analysis adds to previous empirical studies in a number of ways. One, the empirical models test CoC exclusively in the post-Cold War era. Two, along with examining the civilizational determinants of military interstate disputes, as prior studies have done, I include models that focus exclusively on interstate wars, because Huntington frequently points out that a CoC between states will lead to violent political conflict. Finally, this study directly tests Huntington’s civilizational ‘fault lines’ and Islamic ‘bloody border’ hypotheses. I include an extension and find that intra-civilizational conflict is relatively rare in the post-Cold War era. Contrary to earlier analyses, the data show strong empirical support for CoC, particularly when focusing on violent international conflict in the post-Cold War era, and the results are robust when testing the hypotheses with alternative data on international crises.