The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach
The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.12.029
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发表时间：
2011-03-21
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Poletti, Piero
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
d'Onofrio, Alberto;Manfredi, Piero;Poletti, Piero
当大多数常见的疫苗可预防的儿童传染病的发病率和流行率持续较低时，就像许多工业化国家的情况一样，疫苗相关副作用的发生率可能成为疫苗需求的一个关键决定因素。我们研究了SIR传播模型与动态疫苗需求的基础上的模仿机制，疫苗接种的感知风险建模为疫苗副作用的发生率的函数。该模型显示了一些重要的差异相比，以前的游戏动态模型的疫苗接种，并允许值得注意的推论，无论是过去和未来的生命周期的疫苗接种计划。特别是，它建议，一个巨大的不成比例的疾病和疫苗接种之间的感知风险是必要的，以实现高覆盖率。在高度工业化的国家，这种不成比例的现象进一步加剧。这些考虑对今后的疫苗接种方案构成严重挑战。(C)2010爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
When the incidence and prevalence of most common vaccine preventable childhood infectious diseases are constantly low, as is the case in many industrialized countries, the incidence of vaccine-associated side effects might become a key determinant in vaccine demand. We study an SIR transmission model with dynamic vaccine demand based on an imitation mechanism where the perceived risk of vaccination is modelled as a function of the incidence of vaccine side effects. The model shows some important differences compared to previous game dynamic models of vaccination, and allows noteworthy inferences as regards both the past and future lifetime of vaccination programmes. In particular it is suggested that a huge disproportion between the perceived risk of disease and vaccination is necessary in order to achieve high coverages. This disproportion is further increased in highly industrialised countries. Such considerations represent serious challenges for future vaccination programmes. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.