Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation
Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms2296
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Foley, Jonathan A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ray, Deepak K.;Ramankutty, Navin;Foley, Jonathan A.
在未来几十年，人口持续增长、肉类和奶制品消费增加以及生物燃料使用的扩大将大大增加全球农业的压力。即使在我们面临这些未来负担的时候，仍有零星报道称，包括玉米、水稻和小麦在内的世界主要谷类作物的产量停滞不前。在这里，我们研究了1961-2008年期间地球仪的250万次人口普查观测数据。我们研究了全球四种主要作物的产量趋势：玉米、水稻、小麦和大豆。尽管许多地区的产量继续增加，但我们发现，在24-39%的玉米、水稻、小麦和大豆种植区，产量要么从未提高，要么停滞或崩溃。这一结果凸显了满足日益增长的全球农业需求的挑战。需要在业绩不佳的地区进行新的投资，并制定战略，继续提高业绩好的地区的产量。
In the coming decades, continued population growth, rising meat and dairy consumption and expanding biofuel use will dramatically increase the pressure on global agriculture. Even as we face these future burdens, there have been scattered reports of yield stagnation in the world's major cereal crops, including maize, rice and wheat. Here we study data from similar to 2.5 million census observations across the globe extending over the period 1961-2008. We examined the trends in crop yields for four key global crops: maize, rice, wheat and soybeans. Although yields continue to increase in many areas, we find that across 24-39% of maize-, rice-, wheat- and soybean-growing areas, yields either never improve, stagnate or collapse. This result underscores the challenge of meeting increasing global agricultural demands. New investments in underperforming regions, as well as strategies to continue increasing yields in the high-performing areas, are required.