Projection of future typhoons landing on Japan based on a stochastic typhoon model utilizing AGCM projections
Projection of future typhoons landing on Japan based on a stochastic typhoon model utilizing AGCM projections
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DOI：
10.3178/hrl.4.65
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
T. Yasuda;H. Mase;N. Mori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Yasuda;H. Mase;N. Mori
本文提出了一个随机台风模式（STM），用于估计台风在当前和未来气候条件下的特征。通过大气环流模式（AGCM）在气候变化情景下的预测，估计了当前和未来台风统计特征之间的差异，并将其作为气候变化信号纳入未来台风的随机模拟中。从利用Monte Carlo模拟的STM结果来看，台风登陆日本的频率，特别是在三大海湾地区，将减少，台风中心气压的平均值不会发生显着变化。重要的一点是，在未来的气候情景中，更强台风的到来概率将增加。
This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences between statistical characteristics of present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modeling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Japan, especially in three major bay areas, will decrease and the mean value of typhoon central atmospheric pressure will not change significantly. An important point is that the arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.