Uncertainties in Solar Synoptic Magnetic Flux Maps
Uncertainties in Solar Synoptic Magnetic Flux Maps
复制标题
太阳天气磁通量图的不确定性
DOI：
10.1007/s11207-014-0480-3
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
D. Keys
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Bertello;A. Pevtsov;G. Petrie;D. Keys
磁通量天气图对于日冕和日球层的可靠建模至关重要。然而，到目前为止，提供的这些图表没有不确定性估计。不确定性是由于测量中的仪器噪声，以及对天气图中每个面元有贡献的磁通量分布的空间差异造成的。本文介绍了一种计算天气磁通图及其对应的磁通量空间变化图的简单方法，可用来估计日冕模式结果的不确定性。我们已经通过计算日冕场的势场源表面模型来检验这种方法，该模型用于卡林顿天气磁通量图的蒙特卡罗模拟。结果表明，这些不确定性既影响了源面中性线的位置，也影响了模型中冕洞的分布。
Magnetic flux synoptic charts are critical for a reliable modeling of the corona and heliosphere. Until now, however, these charts were provided without uncertainty estimates. The uncertainties are due to instrumental noise in the measurements and to the spatial variance of the magnetic flux distribution that contributes to each bin in the synoptic chart. We describe here a simple method to compute synoptic magnetic flux maps and their corresponding magnetic flux spatial variance charts that can be used to estimate the uncertainty in the results of coronal models. We have tested this approach by computing a potential-field source-surface model of the coronal field for a Monte Carlo simulation of Carrington synoptic magnetic flux maps generated from the variance map. We show that these uncertainties affect both the locations of source-surface neutral lines and the distributions of coronal holes in the models.