Visualizing and verifying probabilistic forecasts of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
Visualizing and verifying probabilistic forecasts of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
复制标题
可视化和验证马登-朱利安振荡的概率预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Hudson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Marshall;H. Hendon;D. Hudson
我们描述了一种基于社区标准实时多变量MJO(RMM)指数的马登-朱利安振荡(MJO)概率预报的新方法，该方法使用澳大利亚预测海洋大气模式版本2的预报。这种新的显示克服了解释色散系综羽的困难，并直接量化了MJO在其RMM定义的八个相中的每一个以及弱相中发生的概率。除了监测和解释MJO的预测外，这种新方法还提供了使用基于概率的技能分数进行预测验证的基础。在这里，我们提供了一个清晰而简明的定量总结，这种创新的方法，以获取MJO的状态在集合预报的概率。这一新方法是对传统MJO集合预报展示和验证的补充，将使全球预报中心、国际MJO工作组和世界气象组织亚季节至季节性项目受益。
We describe a new approach for presenting probabilistic forecasts of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) based on the community standard Real‐time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, using forecasts from version 2 of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia. This new display overcomes the difficulty of interpreting a dispersive ensemble plume and directly quantifies the probability for the MJO to occur in each of its eight RMM‐defined phases as well as the weak phase. Beyond monitoring and interpreting predictions of the MJO, this new approach also provides a basis for forecast verification using probability‐based skill scores. Here we present a clear and concise quantitative summary of this innovative method for accessing probability of the state of the MJO in an ensemble forecast. This new method compliments the traditional MJO ensemble forecast display and verification and will benefit global forecasting centers, international MJO working groups, and the World Meteorological Organization Subseasonal to Seasonal Project.