Weather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia Examined Using a Process-Based Modeling Approach
Weather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia Examined Using a Process-Based Modeling Approach
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0451
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Harley, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie;Williams, Craig;Harley, David
天气变化对登革热传播的影响，在澳大利亚的凯恩斯，通过应用基于过程的登革热模拟模型（DENSiM），结合当地的气象，昆虫学和人口统计数据。分析表明，年际间天气变化是决定登革热暴发接受性的重要因素之一。交叉相关分析显示，DENSiM模拟的流行与凯恩斯1991-2009年期间报告的登革热病例中历史记录的流行具有相似的相对幅度和时间（r = 0.372，P < 0.01）。DENSiM模型现在可用于研究未来气候变化对登革热传播的潜在影响。了解气候变化对登革热传播的地理范围、季节性和规模的影响，将有助于制定适应战略，最大限度地减少澳大利亚未来的疾病负担。
The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991-2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia.