Cost-efficiency analysis of voluntary vaccination against n-serovar diseases using antibody-dependent enhancement: A game approach
Cost-efficiency analysis of voluntary vaccination against n-serovar diseases using antibody-dependent enhancement: A game approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110379
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发表时间：
2020-10-21
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Tanimoto, Jun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kabir, K. M. Ariful;Tanimoto, Jun
流行病的记录承认免疫性多血清型疾病是传染病发生和控制的一个重要方面。这些模式的发生是由于血清型疾病中的抗体依赖性增强（ADE），这导致继发性感染类的感染。这方面的一个实例是登革出血热和登革休克综合征，其包括以下四种血清型：DEN-1、DEN-2、DEN-3和DEN-4。进化疫苗接种博弈方法能够揭示这个长期存在的问题，以评估各种控制计划的成功。虽然免疫接种被认为是最普遍接受的减少感染风险的方法之一，但成本和效率也是必须考虑的重要因素。为了分析自愿接种疫苗中的n血清型方面以及ADE后果，本研究建立了一个新的数学流行病学模型，该模型采用进化博弈论，通过这种方法，我们探索了两种疫苗方案：初级和次级。我们的研究结果表明，疫苗接种决策的“成本效益”效应对控制N-血清型传染病有影响，应设计成避免不良影响的方式。此外，我们的数值结果证明了这样一个事实，即采用ADE显着增加新发疾病的发病率，这也表明，联合疫苗政策的效果更好，当复杂的周期性流行病爆发之间的多血清型相互作用。研究还表明，初级疫苗是比次级疫苗更好的控制工具;然而，引入针对继发感染的高效次级疫苗对控制疾病流行起着关键作用。(C)2020爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Records of epidemics acknowledge immunological multi-serotype illnesses as an important aspect of the occurrence and control of contagious diseases. These patterns occur due to antibody-dependent-enhancement (ADE) among serotype diseases, which leads to infection of secondary infectious classes. One example of this is dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome, which comprises the following four serotypes: DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4. The evolutionary vaccination game approach is able to shed light on this long-standing issue in a bid to evaluate the success of various control programs. Although immunization is regarded as one of the most accepted approaches for minimizing the risk of infection, cost and efficiency are important factors that must also be considered. To analyze the n-serovar aspect alongside ADE consequence in voluntary vaccination, this study establishes a new mathematical epidemiological model that is dovetailed with evolutionary game theory, an approach through which we explored two vaccine programs: primary and secondary. Our findings illuminate that the 'costefficiency' effect for vaccination decision exhibits an impact on controlling n-serovar infectious diseases and should be designed in such a manner as to avoid adverse effects. Furthermore, our numerical result justifies the fact that adopting ADE significantly boosted emerging disease incidence, it also suggest that the joint vaccine policy works even better when the complex cyclical epidemic outbreak takes place among multi serotypes interactions. Research also exposes that the primary vaccine is a better controlling tool than the secondary; however, introducing a highly-efficiency secondary vaccine against secondary infection plays a key role to control the disease prevalence. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.