Periodic 18.6‐year and cyclic 10 to 11 year signals in northeastern United States precipitation data
Periodic 18.6‐year and cyclic 10 to 11 year signals in northeastern United States precipitation data
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美国东北部降水数据中的 18.6 年周期信号和 10 至 11 年周期信号
DOI：
10.1002/joc.3370080304
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发表时间：
1988
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. O'brien
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Cùrrie;D. O'brien
在美国东北部 136 份年度总降水记录中的 126 份以及 1668 份月度记录中的 1531 份中发现了周期接近 18.6 年的窄带限制信号的证据。从1840年到接近19世纪末，波列中的降雨量最小值与18.6年日月潮的潮汐最大值高度相关，后者是牛顿理论中第十二大潮汐成分；然后，波列将相位切换 180°，并且在 20 世纪的大部分时间里，降雨量最大值与 1917.5、1936.1、1954.7 和 1973.3 的潮汐最大值相关。这种大气科学的双稳态现象是由柯里（Currie，1983）在对巴塔哥尼亚安第斯山脉树木年轮的研究中发现的，奥布莱恩和柯里（O'Brien and Currie，1988）提出了数学物理学方面的动力学解释。就年降雨量而言，直到1940年，波浪的平均幅度调制百分比接近±6%，此后开始迅速增加，在1960年代和1970年代达到±10%。这些结果为1964.0潮汐最低时发生的严重缺水危机提供了合理的解释（Namias，1966；1967），并在19年后再次发生。此外，在略多于一半的记录中还发现了 10 至 11 年的较小期限。
Evidence for a narrow band-limited signal with period near 18.6-years is found in 126 out of 136 yearly total precipitation records, and in 1531 out of 1668 monthly records in the northeastern United States. From 1840 to near the end of the 19th century, rainfall minima in the wavetrain are highly correlated with tidal maxima of the 18.6-year luni-solar tide, the twelfth largest tidal constituent in Newton's theory; the wavetrain then switched phase by 180° and for most of the 20th century rainfall maxima are correlated with tidal maxima at 1917.5, 1936.1, 1954.7, and 1973.3. This bistable phenomenon of atmospheric science was discovered by Currie (1983) in a study of tree-rings from the Patagonian Andes, and O'Brien and Currie (1988) have suggested a dynamical explanation in terms of mathematical physics. In terms of yearly rainfall, the mean percentage amplitude modulation of the wave was near ±6% until 1940 after which it began to increase rapidly, reaching ±10% in the 1960s and 1970s. These results provide a rational explanation for the severe water shortage crisis that occurred at tidal minimum 1964.0 (Namias, 1966; 1967), and reoccurred 19 years later. In addition, a smaller band-limited term with period 10 to 11-years is found in a little more than half of the records.