Local Economic Effects of Brexit
Local Economic Effects of Brexit
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DOI：
10.1177/002795011724200112
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发表时间：
2017-07
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Swati Dhingra;S. Machin;H. Overman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Swati Dhingra;S. Machin;H. Overman
本文研究了与英国脱欧相关的贸易壁垒增加对当地经济的影响。英国脱欧对当地影响的预测是在两种不同的情景下提出的，软脱欧和硬脱欧，这是从结构性贸易模型发展而来的。预计在这两种情况下的平均影响都是负面的，在硬脱欧下会更加负面。在后一种情况下，各地区负面冲击的空间差异更大，因为一些地方特别专注于预计将受到英国退欧严重打击的行业。在这两种情况下，英格兰南部地区和城市地区受到英国脱欧的打击更大。这一模式也可以用部门专业化来解释。最后，最有可能投票的地区是那些预计受英国退欧负面影响最大的地区
This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are developed from a structural trade model. Average effects are predicted to be negative under both scenarios, and to be more negative under hard Brexit. The spatial variation in negative shocks across areas is higher in the latter case as some local areas are particularly specialised in sectors that are predicted to be badly hit by hard Brexit. Areas in the South of England, and urban areas, are harder hit by Brexit under both scenarios. Again, this pattern is explained by sector specialisation. Finally, the areas that were most likely to vote remain are those that are predicted to be most negatively impacted by Brexit