The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment
The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment
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低利率环境下酌情财政政策的作用
DOI：
10.3386/w9203
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Feldstein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Feldstein
虽然现在经济学界普遍认为，酌情采取的反周期“财政政策无助于经济稳定，而且在过去的特定时期实际上可能会破坏稳定，但酌情采取的财政政策可以发挥建设性作用的一个重要条件是：在总需求和利率较低、价格正在下降或可能很快下降的持续低迷时期。这篇简短的说明首先总结了反对使用财政政策实现稳定的一般理由。接下来，它考虑了使用超膨胀的货币政策来降低低通货膨胀率将导致货币政策失效的通货紧缩情况的风险的论点。这种政策将增加资产价格泡沫和汇率失调的风险。在总需求和利率较低以及价格正在下降或可能很快下降时，自由裁量的财政政策提供了另一种刺激经济的方式。如果财政政策的作用是鼓励增加私人支出，就可以在不增加预算赤字的情况下实现刺激。考虑美国和日本的具体例子。
Although there is now widespread agreement in the economics profession that discretionary counter-cyclical'fiscal policy has not contributed to economic stability and may have actually been destabilizing at particular times in the past, there is one important condition when discretionary fiscal policy can play a constructive role: in a sustained downturn when aggregate demand and interest rates are low and when prices are falling or may soon be falling. This short note begins by summarizing the general case against using fiscal policy for stabilization. It next considers the argument for using a hyperexpansive' monetary policy to reduce the risk that a low rate of inflation will lead to a deflationary situation in which monetary policy becomes ineffective. Such a policy would increase the risk of asset price bubbles and of a misaligned exchange rate. Discretionary fiscal policy provides an alternative way to stimulate the economy when aggregate demand and interest rates are low and when prices are falling or may soon be falling. A stimulus can be achieved without increasing budget deficits if the fiscal policy acts by providing an incentive for increased private spending. Specific examples for the U.S. and Japan are considered.