Forecast of eutrophication of Panjiakou Reservoir based on Grey-Markov mode
Forecast of eutrophication of Panjiakou Reservoir based on Grey-Markov mode
复制标题
基于灰色马尔可夫模型的潘家口水库富营养化预测
DOI：
10.1109/iswrep.2011.5893112
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jun Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang Luo;Hong;Jun Zhang
为了给政府保护饮用水资源的决策提供技术支持，采用灰色马尔柯夫模型对潘家口水库富营养化水平进行了预测。本文详细介绍了灰色马尔可夫模型，包括状态的确定、状态转移概率的计算、预测表的建立、预测值的计算等，并利用潘家口水库2006 - 2011年的历史数据，基于灰色马尔可夫模型对潘家口水库2011年的营养状态进行了预测。2011年潘家口水库富营养化指数（EI）为57.3，属于轻度富营养化水平，近年来有向中度富营养化水平转变的趋势。富营养化的危害性很大，应引起政府的高度重视。因此，对富营养化水平进行长期预测，采取富营养化防治措施，对可持续发展具有重要意义。
In order to provide technical support for the government's decision to protect drinking water resource, the Grey-Markov model is used to forecast the Panjiakou Reservoir eutrophication level in a given year. The grey-markov model is introduced in detail in this paper, which including determination of state, calculation of state transfer probability, establishment prediction table, calculation of forecasting value and so on. The nutrient state of Panjiakou Reservoir in 2011 is forecasted based on grey-markov model by using the historical data from 2006 to 2011, the eutrophication index (EI) of Panjiakou Reservoir in 2011 is 57.3, which belongs to light eutrophication level, and it has the trend of changing into medium eutrophication level in recent years. The government should pay much more attention to the eutrophication because of its serious harmfulness. Therefore, it is vitally significant to forecast eutrophication level for a long-term and take the eutrophication preventing and controlling measures for the sustainable development.