The Sanctions Glass: Half Full or Completely Empty?
The Sanctions Glass: Half Full or Completely Empty?
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制裁玻璃杯：半满还是全空？
DOI：
10.1162/isec.23.1.50
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发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
K. Elliott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Elliott
~在《为什么经济制裁不起作用》中，罗伯特·佩普设置了一个稻草人，然后大胆地将其击倒。他的目标是对制裁的“新兴乐观主义”，在他过于简单的描述中，经济制裁与其他工具隔离使用，“与军事力量一样有效，更人道”（第90页）。但政策分析家--当然还有那些正在寻找加强制裁并使其更有效的方法的政策制定者--的结论通常要微妙得多，他们对制裁所能实现的期望也比佩普所断言的要有限得多。在伊拉克和海地的经历之后，很少有人认为经济制裁必然更人道，或者说，无论人道主义后果如何，使用经济制裁都是合理的。虽然我对佩普的方法有很多不同意见，但赫夫鲍尔、肖特和埃利奥特（以下简称HSE）对经济制裁效用的底线并没有太大的不同。我们的结论是，“虽然制裁”永远不起作用“的说法并不正确，但它们在实现外交政策目标方面的效用有限，这些目标取决于迫使目标国采取坚决抵制的行动。. . .成功率在很大程度上取决于所寻求的政策或政府变革的类型”（HSE第2版，第1卷，第第92-93段）。此外，我们发现，制裁的效用已经下降，
~ I n “Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work,”’ Robert Pape sets up a straw man and then boldly proceeds to knock it down. His target is an “emerging optimism” about sanctions, which in his oversimplified characterization says that economic sanctions-used in isolation from other tools-are ”as effective as military force and more humane” (p. 90). But policy analysts-and certainly policymakerswho are looking for ways to strengthen sanctions and make them more effective are generally far more nuanced in their conclusions and more limited in their expectations of what sanctions can achieve than Pape asserts. And in the wake of the experiences in Iraq and Haiti, few suggest that economic sanctions are necessarily more humane or that their use can be justified regardless of the humanitarian consequences. While my disagreements with Pape’s methods are many, the Hufbauer, Schott, and Elliott (hereafter HSE) bottom line on the utility of economic sanctions is not terribly different.2 Although Pape cites our work as the “key evidence’’ supporting the perceived optimism that sanctions can achieve major foreign policy goals, he never cites our own interpretation of the evidence. We concluded that ”although it is not true that sanctions ’never work,’ they are of limited utility in achieving foreign policy goals that depend on compelling the target country to take actions it stoutly resists. . . . The success rate importantly depends on the type of policy or governmental change sought” (HSE 2d ed., vol. 1, pp. 92-93). Moreover, we found that the utility of sanctions had declined