Identifying Optimal Portfolios of Resilient Network Investments Against Natural Hazards, With Applications to Earthquakes
Identifying Optimal Portfolios of Resilient Network Investments Against Natural Hazards, With Applications to Earthquakes
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DOI：
10.1109/tpwrs.2019.2945316
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发表时间：
2020-03
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Tomas Lagos;R. Moreno;Alejandro Navarro Espinosa;M. Panteli;Rafael Sacaan;F. Ordóñez;H. Rudnick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tomas Lagos;R. Moreno;Alejandro Navarro Espinosa;M. Panteli;Rafael Sacaan;F. Ordóñez;H. Rudnick
尽管历史上世界各地都发生过极端自然灾害，但电力系统规划人员通常不会在网络投资方法中认识到这些灾害。此外，规划人员历来注重基于平均（而不是风险）业绩指标的可靠性方法，削弱了影响大、概率低的事件对投资决定的影响。为了实现以恢复力为中心的方法，我们提出了一个实用的框架，可用于确定网络投资，提供最高水平的对冲自然灾害造成的风险。在第一个层次中，我们的框架提出了网络增强，并在第二个层次中，使用模拟来评估与网络投资主张相关的弹性水平的改善。该模拟器包括4个阶段：威胁表征，系统组件的脆弱性，系统响应和系统恢复，这是模拟在一个连续的蒙特卡罗方式。我们使用这个建模框架来寻找弹性网络增强的最佳组合解决方案。通过几个案例研究与应用地震，我们区分可靠性和连续性驱动的增强之间的根本区别，并展示了传输投资与安装备份分布式发电相结合的优势。
Although extreme natural disasters have occurred all over the world throughout history, power systems planners do not usually recognize them within network investment methodologies. Moreover, planners had historically focused on reliability approaches based on average (rather than risk) performance indicators, undermining the effects of high impact and low probability events on investment decisions. To move towards a resilience centred approach, we propose a practical framework that can be used to identify network investments that offer the highest level of hedge against risks caused by natural hazards. In a first level, our framework proposes network enhancements and, in a second level, uses a simulation to evaluate the resilience level improvements associated with the network investment propositions. The simulator includes 4 phases: threat characterization, vulnerability of systems components, system response, and system restoration, which are simulated in a sequential Monte Carlo fashion. We use this modeling framework to find optimal portfolio solutions for resilient network enhancements. Through several case studies with applications to earthquakes, we distinguish the fundamental differences between reliability- and resilience-driven enhancements, and demonstrate the advantages of combining transmission investments with installation of backup distributed generation.