Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea
Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01814.x
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发表时间：
2009-06-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Axe, Philip
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moellmann, Christian;Diekmann, Rabea;Axe, Philip
波罗的海等海洋生态系统目前正受到大气和人类活动的强大压力。除了自然和人为引起的气候变化外，过度捕捞和人为富营养化等主要人为驱动因素也在严重影响生态系统的结构和功能。最近的研究表明，在各种陆地和水生生态系统中存在替代稳定状态。对这些所谓的生态系统状况变化的解释主要是多种原因造成的，例如气候状况变化、过度开发或两者兼而有之。生态系统状况发生变化具有重要的管理意义，因为它们可能造成生态和经济资源的重大损失。由于生态系统反应的滞后性，被认为是有利的恢复制度可能需要激烈和昂贵的管理行动。波罗的海是世界海洋中最大的咸水水体，其生态系统也受到大气和人为驱动因素的强烈影响。在这里，我们提出的分析结果的状态和发展的波罗的海中部生态系统集成水文气候，营养，植物和浮游动物以及渔业数据。我们的分析52个生物和非生物变量使用多元统计表明，一个重大的重组的生态系统，并确定了两个稳定的状态之间的1974年和2005年，分离的过渡期在1988年至1993年。我们表明，在波罗的海生态系统结构的变化有一个不连续的政权转移的特点，由气候引起的变化，在非生物环境和稳定的鱼引起的反馈循环的食物网。我们的研究结果表明，通过减少人为影响来维持生态系统对大气引起的环境变化的恢复力非常重要。
Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural and human-induced changes in climate, major anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing and anthropogenic eutrophication are significantly affecting ecosystem structure and function. Recently, studies demonstrated the existence of alternative stable states in various terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These so-called ecosystem regime shifts have been explained mainly as a result of multiple causes, e.g. climatic regime shifts, overexploitation or a combination of both. The occurrence of ecosystem regime shifts has important management implications, as they can cause significant losses of ecological and economic resources. Because of hysteresis in ecosystem responses, restoring regimes considered as favourable may require drastic and expensive management actions. Also the Baltic Sea, the largest brackish water body in the world ocean, and its ecosystems are strongly affected by atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers. Here, we present results of an analysis of the state and development of the Central Baltic Sea ecosystem integrating hydroclimatic, nutrient, phyto- and zooplankton as well as fisheries data. Our analyses of 52 biotic and abiotic variables using multivariate statistics demonstrated a major reorganization of the ecosystem and identified two stable states between 1974 and 2005, separated by a transition period in 1988-1993. We show the change in Baltic ecosystem structure to have the characteristics of a discontinuous regime shift, initiated by climate-induced changes in the abiotic environment and stabilized by fisheries-induced feedback loops in the food web. Our results indicate the importance of maintaining the resilience of an ecosystem to atmospherically induced environmental change by reducing the anthropogenic impact.