The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)
The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023
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发表时间：
2023-08
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
L. Wilcox;R. Allen;B. Samset;M. Bollasina;P. T. Griffiths;J. Keeble;M. Lund;R. Makkonen;J. Merikanto;D. O’Donnell;D. Paynter;G. Persad;S. Rumbold;T. Takemura;K. Tsigaridis;Sabine Undorf;D. Westervelt
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作者：
L. Wilcox;R. Allen;B. Samset;M. Bollasina;P. T. Griffiths;J. Keeble;M. Lund;R. Makkonen;J. Merikanto;D. O’Donnell;D. Paynter;G. Persad;S. Rumbold;T. Takemura;K. Tsigaridis;Sabine Undorf;D. Westervelt
抽象的。人为气溶胶排放的变化极大地促进了全球和区域的温度、降水和其他气候特征的趋势，是亚洲和非洲降水年代际趋势的主要驱动因素之一。预计气溶胶排放变化对区域气候的这些和其他影响将持续下去，并可能在未来几十年得到加强。然而，排放路径、辐射强迫和对强迫的动力响应的巨大不确定性相结合，使人为气溶胶成为近期气候预测传播的关键因素，特别是在区域尺度上，因此是一个需要限制的重要因素。例如，就未来的排放途径而言，到2050年，未来全球气溶胶和前体气体排放的不确定性与自1850年以来排放的总增量一样大。在气溶胶有效辐射强迫方面，这仍然是未来气候变化预测中最大的不确定性来源，CMIP6模式的范围是5倍，从−0.3到−1.5W m−2。这两个不确定性来源在区域尺度上都加剧了。区域气溶胶模式对比项目(RAMIP)将开展旨在量化区域气溶胶排放变化在近期预测中作用的实验。这与之前的任何MIP不同，MIP的重点是全球排放的变化和/或非常理想的气溶胶实验。扰乱区域排放使RAMIP从科学角度看具有新颖性，并将预期的分析更直接地与缓解和适应政策问题联系起来。从科学的角度来看，关于现实的区域气溶胶排放如何影响当地和偏远气候条件的信息有限。在这里，RAMIP将能够全面评估现实的和区域不同的气溶胶排放变化对近期气候的潜在影响。从政策的角度来看，环境与环境政策研究所解决了一个紧迫的问题，即影响气雾剂排放的当地和远程决策如何影响任何特定区域的气候变化。在这里，RAMIP将提供在区域气候政策和区域气候变化之间建立直接联系所需的信息。RAMIP实验的目的是探索对气溶胶类型和位置的敏感性，并改进对气溶胶辐射强迫和对气溶胶变化的动力响应所驱动的不确定性的约束。核心实验将评估到2051年的未来全球和区域(非洲和中东、东亚、北美和欧洲以及南亚)气溶胶排放轨迹的差异的影响，而可选的实验将测试沿这一未来轨迹的不同排放位置和气溶胶类型的非线性效应。所有实验都基于共享的社会经济路径，并打算用第六次气候模式比较项目(CMIP6)生成的模型进行，这些模型是从CMIP6历史实验中初始化的，以便于与现有预测进行比较。所要求的产出将有助于分析气溶胶在近期温度和降水手段和极端、风暴和空气质量等变化中的作用。
Abstract. Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.