Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions
Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions
复制标题
贸易限制的碳和健康影响
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-12890-3
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发表时间：
2019-10-30
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Hubacek, Klaus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, Jintai;Du, Mingxi;Hubacek, Klaus
在全球化经济中，商品生产可能会因贸易争端而中断。然而，对二氧化碳排放和环境颗粒物（PM2.5）相关过早死亡的影响尚不清楚。在这里，我们表明，与自由贸易世界相比，在每个部门的排放强度不变的情况下，现行关税加上对每个贸易产品征收25%的额外关税的极端反贸易情景将使全球出口量减少32.5%，国内生产总值减少9.0%，二氧化碳减少6.3%，与PM2.5相关的死亡率减少4.1%。对美国、西欧和中国的影响将是巨大的。更自由的贸易情景将增加全球二氧化碳排放和空气污染，因为生产水平提高，特别是在排放强度相对较高的发展中区域。减少发展中区域排放强度的全球合作行动有助于通过全球化实现经济-环境双赢。
In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.