A growing care gap? The supply of unpaid care for older people by their adult children in England to 2032
A growing care gap? The supply of unpaid care for older people by their adult children in England to 2032
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DOI：
10.1017/s0144686x13000512
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Pickard, Linda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pickard, Linda
欧洲和其他经济较发达国家人口老龄化的一个主要特点是，预计今后20年对长期护理的需求将空前增加。然而，未来由成年子女为老年人提供无酬照护的情况存在相当大的不确定性。在计划改革长期护理系统的国家，家庭护理的未来尤为重要，英国就是这种情况。本文对英格兰65岁及以上的父母到2032年的无偿护理供应进行了新的预测，并将这些预测与现有的残疾老年人对子女无偿护理需求的预测进行了比较。研究结果表明，英格兰成年子女向残疾老年人提供的无偿护理不太可能跟上未来的需求。到2032年，预计英格兰将短缺16万名护理人员。到2017年，无偿护理的需求将开始超过供应，从那时起，无偿“护理缺口”将迅速扩大。文章最后探讨了这种无偿的“护理差距”可能会被满足的无偿护理的其他来源或新技术的发展，并探讨了长期护理政策的影响的调查结果。
A key feature of population ageing in Europe and other more economically developed countries is the projected unprecedented rise in need for long-term care in the next two decades. There is, however, considerable uncertainty over the future supply of unpaid care for older people by their adult children. The future of family care is particularly important in countries planning to reform their long-term care systems, as is the case in England. This article makes new projections of the supply of intense unpaid care for parents aged 65 and over in England to 2032, and compares these projections with existing projections of demand for unpaid care by older people with disabilities from their children. The results show that the supply of unpaid care to older people with disabilities by their adult children in England is unlikely to keep pace with demand in future. By 2032, there is projected to be a shortfall of 160,000 care-givers in England. Demand for unpaid care will begin to exceed supply by 2017 and the unpaid 'care gap' will grow rapidly from then onwards. The article concludes by examining how far this unpaid 'care gap' is likely to be met by other sources of unpaid care or by developments in new technology and examines the implications of the findings for long-term care policy.