An Assessment of the Distribution and Spread of the Tick Hyalomma marginatum in the Western Palearctic Under Different Climate Scenarios
An Assessment of the Distribution and Spread of the Tick Hyalomma marginatum in the Western Palearctic Under Different Climate Scenarios
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DOI：
10.1089/vbz.2011.0771
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Estrada-Sanchez, Adrian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Estrada-Pena, Agustin;Sanchez, Nely;Estrada-Sanchez, Adrian
我们应用一个过程驱动的模型来评估2020年，2050年和2080年的气候情景对西部古北界Hyalomma marginatum蜱生命周期的影响。与当前气候基线相比，在测试的每种情况下，蜱虫种群的净增长率都有所增加。这些结果支持了在未来气候情景下蜱虫存活率增加和种群更替增加的预期。我们包括一个基本的评估主机移动的基础上连接到海拔，坡度，大小的近补丁，和补丁间的距离在目标区域的真实的景观的规则。关于景观的数据是从中等分辨率的中分辨率成像光谱仪卫星图像中获得的，这使我们能够测试种群的潜在扩散。这种与过程驱动的生命周期模型相联系的宿主扩散模型表明，东部（土耳其，俄罗斯和巴尔干半岛）的H。边缘种目前分离良好，与西部（意大利、西班牙和北方非洲）种群很少混合。北方的界限是巴尔干半岛、阿尔卑斯山和比利牛斯山的寒冷地区。在气候情景预测的温暖条件下，在整个新地区，以前没有病媒的蜱虫交换预计将增加，主要是在巴尔干半岛和俄罗斯南部，超过山脉的限制。因此，蜱虫活动范围的北方界限将增加。进一步的研究是必要的，以了解宿主变化的影响范围和丰富的H。marginatum和克里米亚-刚果出血热病毒。
We applied a process-driven model to evaluate the impact of climate scenarios for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 on the life cycle of Hyalomma marginatum ticks in the western Palearctic. The net growth rate of the tick populations increased in every scenario tested compared to the current climate baseline. These results support the expectations of increased tick survival and increased population turnover in future climate scenarios. We included a basic evaluation of host movement based on rules connected to altitude, slope, size of the near patches, and inter-patch distances in the real landscape over the target area. Data on landscape were obtained from medium-resolution MODIS satellite imagery, which allowed us to test the potential spread of the populations. Such a model of host dispersal linked to the process-driven life cycle model demonstrated that eastern (Turkey, Russia, and Balkans) populations of H. marginatum currently are well separated and have little mixing with western (Italy, Spain, and northern Africa) populations. The northern limit is marked by the cold areas in the Balkans, Alps, and Pyrenees. Under the warmer conditions predicted by the climate scenarios, the exchange of ticks throughout new areas, previously free of the vector, is expected to increase, mainly in the Balkans and southern Russia, over the limit of the mountain ranges. Therefore, the northern limit of the tick range would increase. Additional studies are necessary to understand the implications of host changes in range and abundance for H. marginatum and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus.