European temperature distribution changes in observations and climate change scenarios
European temperature distribution changes in observations and climate change scenarios
复制标题
观测和气候变化情景中欧洲温度分布的变化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Schär
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Scherrer;C. Appenzeller;M. Liniger;C. Schär
使用 1961 年至 2004 年期间的观测结果以及一组 IPCC SRES A2 和 B2 气候变化模拟，研究了中欧季节性地表温度分布的变化。分段去趋势方法用于区分内在变异性变化和趋势引起的变异性变化。平均值和年际变异性变化根据相应数据集的内在变异性进行标准化。在此框架内，无论是在观测还是在气候模型中，夏季平均温度变化最为剧烈。对变异性变化的估计显示夏季（冬季）有微弱的增加（减少），但这些变化在 90% 的水平上并不具有统计显着性。对于 21 世纪，所有气候情景运行都表明所有季节的平均值都有较大的相对增加，其中夏季幅度最大。尽管模型之间相对变异性的变化差异很大，但未来夏季（冬季）变异性有增加（减少）的趋势。
Changes in the distribution of seasonal surface temperature are investigated in central Europe using observations between 1961 and 2004 and a set of IPCC SRES A2 and B2 climate change simulations. A piecewise detrending methodology is used to distinguish between intrinsic and trend‐induced variability changes. Mean and interannual variability changes are standardized with the intrinsic variability of the respective dataset. Within this framework, the strongest temperature changes in mean since 1990 are found for the summer season, both in observations and climate models. Estimates for variability changes show a weak increase (decrease) in summer (winter), but these changes are not statistically significant at the 90% level. For the 21st century all climate scenario runs suggest large relative increases in mean for all seasons with maximum amplitude in summer. Although changes in relative variability vary substantially between the models, there is a tendency for increasing (decreasing) variability in future summers (winters).