Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
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哥伦比亚2014-2017年寨卡和基孔肯雅热流行的时空入侵动态
DOI：
10.1101/2020.09.11.20189811
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Charniga K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Charniga K
寨卡病毒(ZIKV)和基孔肯雅病毒(CHIKV)最近被引入美洲，造成了重大的疾病负担。了解它们在国家以下一级的空间和时间动态，是为监测和防范未来流行病提供信息的关键。我们分析了2014-2017年疫情期间约105,000例寨卡病毒疾病和412,000例基孔肯雅热疑似病例和实验室确诊病例的匿名行列表数据。我们首先确定了每个城市的入侵周。在1122个城市中，288个城市达到了寨卡病毒的疫情入侵标准，338个城市达到了寨卡病毒的疫情入侵标准。我们使用线性和Logistic回归模型分析了侵袭的危险因素。我们还估计，这两种流行病的地理起源都位于哥伦比亚北部的巴兰基利亚。我们评估了这两种病毒的空间和时间入侵动态，以分析城市之间的传播，使用了一套(I)重力模型，(Ii)Stouffer等级模型，和(Iii)具有两种距离度量的辐射模型，即城市之间的地理距离和旅行时间。当考虑到地理距离和中等程度的密度依赖时，重力模型最能反映入侵风险；Stouffer的具有地理距离的等级模型表现类似。虽然在疫情开始时发生了一些长距离入侵事件，但重力模型估计的距离威力为1.7(95%CRI：1.5-2.0)，表明空间传播主要是由短距离传播驱动的。联合拟合的模型突出了流行病之间的相似性，当传播强度被允许在虫媒病毒之间变化时，联合拟合的模型比单独的模型更受欢迎。然而，ZIKV的传播速度比CHIKV快得多。
Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014–2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer’s rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer’s rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5–2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV.