Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States
Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States
复制标题
美国的地方财政乘数和财政溢出效应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Daniel Murphy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Auerbach;Y. Gorodnichenko;Daniel Murphy
我们使用基于美国国防部合同的丰富数据集以及与收入和就业相关的各种结果变量来估计美国的地方财政乘数和溢出效应。我们发现了跨地区和行业的强有力的积极溢出效应。后向联系和一般均衡效应（例如，收入乘数）有助于积极的溢出效应。地理溢出效应似乎随着距离的增加而迅速消失。我们的证据表明，凯恩斯式的产能过剩模型具有相关性。
We estimate local fiscal multipliers and spillovers for the United States using a rich dataset based on U.S. Department of Defense contracts and a variety of outcome variables relating to income and employment. We find strong positive spillovers across locations and industries. Both backward linkages and general equilibrium effects (e.g., income multipliers) contribute to the positive spillovers. Geographical spillovers appear to dissipate fairly quickly with distance. Our evidence points to the relevance of Keynesian-type models that feature excess capacity.