Regional Synchronization during Economic Contraction: The Case of the U.S. and Japan
Regional Synchronization during Economic Contraction: The Case of the U.S. and Japan
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经济收缩期间的区域同步：以美国和日本为例
DOI：
10.1080/00036846.2022.2115450
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Saiki Yoshitaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Muto Makoto;Onozaki Tamotsu;Saiki Yoshitaka
20年的研究发现，国家商业周期过渡的时间及其持续时间存在显著的区域差异。早期的研究部分发现了欧洲、美国和日本商业周期扩张和收缩的区域同步性。我们研究这种可能性，通过应用一个复杂的方法来确定随时间变化的同步程度，在美国和日本的区域商业周期数据。该方法在非线性科学中很突出，但很少应用于商业周期研究。我们发现，在区域经济周期的同步程度在收缩期间增加，并在整个研究期间的扩张下降。经济周期收缩和扩张阶段的这种不对称性将有助于我们更好地理解经济周期现象。
Two decades of studies have found significant regional differences in the timing of transitions in national business cycles and their durations. Earlier studies partly detect regional synchronization during business cycle expansions and contractions in Europe, the United States, and Japan. We examine this possibility by applying a sophisticated method for identifying the time-varying degree of synchronization to regional business cycle data in the U.S. and Japan. The method is prominent in nonlinear sciences but has been infrequently applied in business cycle studies. We find that the degree of synchronization in regional business cycles increased during contractions and decreased during expansions throughout the period under study. Such asymmetry between the contraction and expansion phases of a business cycle will contribute to our better understanding of the phenomenon of business cycles.