Simulating the carbon balance of a temperate larch forest under various meteorological conditions.
Simulating the carbon balance of a temperate larch forest under various meteorological conditions.
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DOI：
10.1186/1750-0680-2-6
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发表时间：
2007-05-30
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Hara T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Toda M;Yokozawa M;Sumida A;Watanabe T;Hara T
物候事件发生时间的变化可能导致落叶林的年度碳收支发生变化。因此，在评估全球变暖对落叶林的影响时，应考虑到这些事件。在这篇文章中，我们报告的结果进行了数值实验的模型，其中包括一个物候模块模拟萌芽和其他物候事件的时间和估计最大叶面积指数。这项研究表明，气候变暖对树木生产力（净初级生产力）的负面影响超过了生长季节延长的积极影响。气温每升高3°C（5°C），累计净初级生产量就会减少21.3%（34.2%）。同样，当温度升高3°C（5°C）时，累积净生态系统生产力（累积净初级生产力与异养呼吸之间的差值）减少43.5%（64.5%）。然而，CO2富集（2 × CO2）的积极影响超过了变暖（<5°C）的负面影响。虽然该模型是校准和验证一个特定的森林生态系统，该研究的影响可以外推到落叶林在冷温带。这些森林具有共同的特点，可以肯定的是，在二氧化碳加倍和气温上升的情况下，只要气温上升不超过5°C，这些森林的碳储存就会增加。
Changes in the timing of phenological events may cause the annual carbon budget of deciduous forests to change. Therefore, one should take such events into account when evaluating the effects of global warming on deciduous forests. In this article, we report on the results of numerical experiments done with a model that includes a phenological module simulating the timing of bud burst and other phenological events and estimating maximum leaf area index. This study suggests that the negative effects of warming on tree productivity (net primary production) outweigh the positive effects of a prolonged growing season. An increase in air temperature by 3°C (5°C) reduces cumulative net primary production by 21.3% (34.2%). Similarly, cumulative net ecosystem production (the difference between cumulative net primary production and heterotrophic respiration) decreases by 43.5% (64.5%) when temperatures are increased by 3°C (5°C). However, the positive effects of CO2 enrichment (2 × CO2) outweigh the negative effects of warming (<5°C). Although the model was calibrated and validated for a specific forest ecosystem, the implications of the study may be extrapolated to deciduous forests in cool-temperate zones. These forests share common features, and it can be conjectured that carbon stocks would increase in such forests in the face of doubled CO2 and increased temperatures as long as the increase in temperature does not exceed 5°C.