Outdoor recreation participation in the United States - projections to 2060: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment
Outdoor recreation participation in the United States - projections to 2060: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment
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美国户外休闲参与 - 到 2060 年的预测：支持林务局 2010 年 RPA 评估的技术文件
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
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通讯作者：
L. Seymour
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作者：
J. Bowker;A. Askew;H. K. Cordell;C. Betz;S. Zarnoch;L. Seymour
请使用以下链接下载与本出版物相关的4个附录：网络附录A网络附录B网络附录C网络附录D我们制定了到2060年参与17项户外娱乐活动的国家预测。这些预测是根据人口增长、社会经济条件、土地使用变化和气候变化的未来做出的。我们采用了两步走的方法来预测参与者的数量和参与的天数。估算步骤产生了按活动分列的成人参与率和参与天数的国家一级统计模型。模拟步骤将模型与解释变量的外部预测相结合，以10年为间隔，直到2060年。然后将人均参与人数和参与天数估计数与人口预测数结合起来，得出按活动分列的参与人数和参与天数估计数。结果来自三个2010年资源规划法评估方案，每个方案都有三个相关的气候未来。调查结果表明，户外娱乐将仍然是美国社会和经济结构的重要组成部分。在没有气候变化的情况下，17项娱乐活动的参与者人数预计将在未来50年内增加。在某些情况下，参与率会下降，但人口增长将确保参与人数增加。一些气候期货导致参与者的预测下降，例如，雪地摩托和未开发的滑雪运动的参与人数下降了25%，尽管人口在增长。气候也被证明有不同的影响，预测每年的参与日，特别是雪地摩托，未开发的滑雪，狩猎。
Please use the following links to download the 4 appendices associated with this publication: Web Appendix A Web Appendix B Web Appendix C Web Appendix D We developed national projections through 2060 of participation for 17 outdoor recreation activities. The projections were made under futures that vary by population growth, socioeconomic conditions, land use changes, and climate. We used a two-step approach to project the number of participants and the days of participation. The estimation step yielded national level statistical models of adult participation rate and days of participation by activity. The simulation step combined the models with external projections of explanatory variables at 10-year intervals to 2060. Per capita estimates for participation and days were then combined with population projections to derive estimates of participants and days of participation by activity. Results were derived across three 2010 Resources Planning Act Assessment scenarios that each feature three associated climate futures. Findings indicated that outdoor recreation will remain a key part of the social and economic fabric of the United States. In the absence of climate change, the number of participants in the 17 recreation activities is projected to increase over the next 5 decades. In some cases, the participation rate will decline, but population growth will ensure that the number of participants increases. Some climate futures led to projected declines in participants, e.g., snowmobiling and undeveloped skiing showed declines in participant numbers up to 25 percent, despite population growth. Climate was also shown to have disparate effects on projections of annual days of participation, particularly for snowmobiling, undeveloped skiing, and hunting.