A 3-year prognostic score for adults with cystic fibrosis
A 3-year prognostic score for adults with cystic fibrosis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jcf.2017.03.004
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发表时间：
2017-11-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hocine, M. N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nkam, L.;Lambert, J.;Hocine, M. N.
背景：在过去的几十年中，囊性纤维化（CF）患者的治疗进展导致预后改善。我们的目标是重新评估CF的预后因素，并提供预后评分来预测成人患者3年内死亡或肺移植（LT）的风险。方法：我们利用法国CF登记处的数据建立了一个逻辑模型，并将系数合并为预后评分。采用c统计量评价模型的判别能力和预后评分。预后评分采用10倍交叉验证进行验证。结果：3年内死亡或肝移植的风险与8个特征相关。开发和验证为预后评分提供了良好的结果；c统计量分别为0.91和0.90。结论：用于预测CF成人3年死亡或LT的评分可能对临床医生识别需要对LT进行专门评估的患者有用。Elsevier B.V.出版
Background: Therapeutic progress in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) has resulted in improved prognosis over the past decades. We aim to reevaluate prognostic factors of CF and provide a prognostic score to predict the risk of death or lung transplantation (LT) within a 3-year period in adult patients.Methods: We developed a logistic model using data from the French CF Registry and combined the coefficients into a prognostic score. The discriminative abilities of the model and the prognostic score were assessed by c-statistic. The prognostic score was validated using a 10-fold cross validation.Results: The risk of death or LT within 3 years was related to eight characteristics. The development and the validation provided excellent results for the prognostic score; the c-statistic was 0.91 and 0.90 respectively.Conclusion: The score developed to predict 3-year death or LT in adults with CF might be useful for clinicians to identify patients requiring specialized evaluation for LT. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.