Dissecting Aggregate Real Wage Fluctuations: Individual Wage Growth and the Composition Effect
Dissecting Aggregate Real Wage Fluctuations: Individual Wage Growth and the Composition Effect
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剖析总体实际工资波动：个人工资增长和构成效应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Theodore S. Wiles
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Daly;B. Hobijn;Theodore S. Wiles
我们使用1980年至2011年的当前人口调查数据，研究是什么驱动了真实的工资增长率随时间的变化和周期性。我们采用了一种新的分解技术，使我们能够将中位数每周收入增长的时间序列分为与就业人员在开始和结束时的工资增长相关的部分（工资增长效应）和与收入者组成变化相关的部分（组成效应）。这两种效应的相对重要性在整个商业周期中变化很大。当劳动力市场紧张时，跳槽者的工资会大幅上涨，这使得他们占了我们样本中周收入增长中位数变化的一半。他们的工资增长，以及就业者的工资增长，是顺周期的。在劳动力市场低迷期间，这种顺周期性在很大程度上被劳动力构成的变化所抵消，导致总真实的工资几乎是非周期性的。这种构成效应大部分通过兼职就业差额发挥作用。值得注意的是，失业率既不能解释周收入增长中值的变化，也不能解释周收入增长中值的周期性。
Using data from the Current Population Survey from 1980 through 2011 we examine what drives the variation and cyclicality of the growth rate of real wages over time. We employ a novel decomposition technique that allows us to divide the time series for median weekly earnings growth into the part associated with the wage growth of persons employed at the beginning and end of the period (the wage growth effect) and the part associated with changes in the composition of earners (the composition effect). The relative importance of these two effects varies widely over the business cycle. When the labor market is tight job switchers get large wage increases, making them account for half of the variation in median weekly earnings growth over our sample. Their wage growth, as well as that of job-stayers, is procyclical. During labor market downturns, this procyclicality is largely offset by the change in the composition of the workforce, leading aggregate real wages to be almost non-cyclical. Most of this composition effect works through the part-time employment margin. Remarkably, the unemployment margin neither accounts for much of the variation in nor much of the cyclicality of median weekly earnings growth.