Possible link between interannual variation of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) abundance in the North Pacific and the climate phase shift in 1998/1999
Possible link between interannual variation of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) abundance in the North Pacific and the climate phase shift in 1998/1999
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.pocean.2015.03.008
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
H. Igarashi;T. Ichii;M. Sakai;Y. Ishikawa;T. Toyoda;S. Masuda;N. Sugiura;K. Mahapatra;T. Awaji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Igarashi;T. Ichii;M. Sakai;Y. Ishikawa;T. Toyoda;S. Masuda;N. Sugiura;K. Mahapatra;T. Awaji
研究了北太平洋中部氖（Ommastrephes bartramii）秋季群体丰度的年际变化与海洋环境变化的关系。我们重点研究了1998/1999年气候转变期间次表层海洋状态的变化。通过长期流网调查，比较了氖飞鱼单位努力量渔获量（CPUE）的变化和与其摄食条件有关的海洋环境中的CPUE变化。采用四维变分（4D-VAR）海洋资料同化产品作为北太平洋动力状态的精确估计。相关分析表明，冬季太平洋柔鱼CPUE与太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）密切相关。在1月，与夹带率（ENT），代理的营养丰富的水供应进入混合层的相关字段，表现出良好的协议与秋季队列（MSNGAC）的主要产卵和育苗场。初冬MSNGAC的富营养化供水主要是由地面潜热冷却和湍流混合导致的混合层加深引起的，而流域尺度风应力旋度和水平平流的影响较小。这些结果表明，在初冬新供应的富营养化的水团的量可以影响初级生产力在整个冬季和由此产生的幼鱿鱼的摄食条件。我们假设，这一过程将决定氖飞鱼在下一个夏天的库存水平。我们进一步尝试重建氖飞鱼CPUE的变化，在1994-2006年期间，应用回归分析的几个参数。结果表明，ENT，表面和次表面温度，PDO指数在2月是很好的预测估计鱿鱼CPUE时间序列。此外，在MSNGAC在前一个秋天的次表层温度也是一个很好的预测。这表明，鱿鱼CPUE可以预测4个月前的托儿所，作为相同的精度使用2月的数据。早期准确的预测预报对今后的鱿鱼资源管理具有重要的指导意义。
The relationship between interannual variation in abundance of the autumn cohort of the neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) and ocean environmental changes in the central North Pacific was examined. We focused on the change in subsurface ocean state during the 1998/1999 climate shift. Changes in catch per unit effort (CPUE) of the neon flying squid derived from long-term driftnet survey was compared to that in ocean environments related to the feeding conditions of the squid. A four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) ocean data assimilation product was used as an accurate estimate of the dynamic state in the North Pacific. Correlation analysis indicated that the squid CPUE was highly related with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in winter. In January, the correlation field with the entrainment rate (ENT), the proxy for the nutrient-rich water supply entering the mixed layer, showed a good agreement with the main spawning and nursery ground of the autumn cohort (MSNGAC). The nutrient-rich water supply in the MSNGAC in early winter was mainly induced by the deepening of the mixed layer forced by surface latent heat cooling and turbulent mixing, while the basin-scale wind stress curl and the horizontal advection were less affected. These results suggest that the amount of newly supplied nutrient-rich water mass in early winter could affect the primary productivity throughout the winter and the resultant feeding conditions of the juvenile squid. We assumed that this process would determine the stock levels of the neon flying squid in the following summer. We further attempted to reconstruct the changes in neon flying squid CPUE during 1994–2006 by applying regression analysis to several parameters. The result showed that ENT, surface and subsurface temperatures, and the PDO index in February were good predictors for estimating the squid CPUE time series. In addition, the subsurface temperature in the MSNGAC in the preceding autumn was also a good predictor. This indicates that the squid CPUE could be predicted four months earlier than its nursery period, as the same accuracy as that using February data. The accurate prediction in early period could be useful for the squid stock management in the future.