Remaining useful life prediction for hard failures using joint model with extended hazard
Remaining useful life prediction for hard failures using joint model with extended hazard
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DOI：
10.1002/qre.2285
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发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Jianing Man;Qiang Zhou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jianing Man;Qiang Zhou
在本文中，我们研究了一种硬故障的联合建模方法，其中退化信号和事件间隔时间数据都是可用的。退化信号用混合效应模型建模，事件间隔时间数据用扩展危险模型建模。扩展危险模型是一个一般模型，它包括两个著名的风险率模型，即Cox比例危险模型和加速失效时间模型，作为特例。使用两阶段估计方法来获得模型参数，在此基础上可以预测在役单元的剩余使用寿命。通过仿真研究和实例分析，验证了该方法的有效性。
In this paper, we investigate a joint modeling method for hard failures where both degradation signals and time‐to‐event data are available. The mixed‐effects model is used to model degradation signals, and extended hazard model is used for the time‐to‐event data. The extended hazard is a general model which includes two well‐known hazard rate models, the Cox proportional hazards model and accelerated failure time model, as special cases. A two‐stage estimation approach is used to obtain model parameters, based on which remaining useful life for the in‐service unit can be predicted. The performance of the method is demonstrated through both simulation studies and a real case study.