Incorporating movement into models of grey seal population dynamics
Incorporating movement into models of grey seal population dynamics
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01084.x
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发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Harwood, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Harrison, Philip J.;Buckland, Stephen T.;Harwood, John
在发展人口动态的空间显式模型中，最困难的问题之一是运动过程的验证和参数化。我们展示了如何通过将捕获-再捕获分析得出的运动模型纳入适合丰度数据时间序列的空间显式元种群模型来改进它们。本研究采用多地点捕获-再捕获分析技术，对1999年至2001年间在北海四个主要繁殖群采集的雌性灰海豹照片识别数据进行了分析。然后将最合适的运动模型纳入明确考虑人口统计学和观察随机性的状态空间元人口模型。使用贝叶斯方法将这些元种群模型拟合到每个群体20年的幼崽生产数据序列中。基于赤池信息标准（Akaike Information Criterion， AIC）的最佳拟合模型只有一个运动参数，其置信区间比捕获-再捕获研究的结果小82%，但对包含菌落间距离影响的模型有一定的支持。状态空间模型提供了对其他人口统计参数的改进估计。运动的结合及其建模的方式影响了当地和区域的动态。这些差异在种群接近其承载能力时最为明显，这表明我们区分模型的能力应该随着灰海豹时间序列长度的增加而提高。
One of the most difficult problems in developing spatially explicit models of population dynamics is the validation and parameterization of the movement process. We show how movement models derived from capture-recapture analysis can be improved by incorporating them into a spatially explicit metapopulation model that is fitted to a time series of abundance data.We applied multisite capture-recapture analysis techniques to photo-identification data collected from female grey seals at the four main breeding colonies in the North Sea between 1999 and 2001. The best-fitting movement models were then incorporated into state-space metapopulation models that explicitly accounted for demographic and observational stochasticity.These metapopulation models were fitted to a 20-year time series of pup production data for each colony using a Bayesian approach. The best-fitting model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), had only a single movement parameter, whose confidence interval was 82% less than that obtained from the capture-recapture study, but there was some support for a model that included an effect of distance between colonies.The state-space modelling provided improved estimates of other demographic parameters.The incorporation of movement, and the way in which it was modelled, affected both local and regional dynamics. These differences were most evident as colonies approached their carrying capacities, suggesting that our ability to discriminate between models should improve as the length of the grey seal time series increases.