Random breath testing in Queensland and Western Australia: Examination of how the random breath testing rate influences alcohol related traffic crash rates
Random breath testing in Queensland and Western Australia: Examination of how the random breath testing rate influences alcohol related traffic crash rates
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2013.08.018
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发表时间：
2013-11-13
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Devaney, Madonna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferris, Jason;Mazerolle, Lorraine;Devaney, Madonna
在本文中，我们探讨每月随机呼气测试（RBT）率（每1000名持牌司机）和酒精相关的交通事故（ARTC）率随时间的推移，在澳大利亚两个州：昆士兰州和西澳大利亚州之间的关系。我们分析了12年来的RBT、ARTC和持牌司机费率;然而，由于行政限制，我们对2004年7月至2009年6月期间的RBT费率进行了ARTC费率建模。昆士兰州的数据显示，在这五年期间，每月ARTC费率几乎持平。根据分析结果，在整个研究期间，每10万名持牌司机平均有5.5名ARTC。在同一时期，每1000名持牌驾驶员的RBT月率在整个研究中观察到下降，分析结果显示数据没有显着变化。西澳大利亚州和昆士兰州之间的比较显示，昆士兰州的ARTC月变化百分比（MPC）为0.014，而西澳大利亚州的MPC为0.47。虽然昆士兰州保持相对平稳的ARTC费率，但西澳大利亚州的ARTC费率正在增加。我们的分析揭示了ARTC RBT率之间的反比关系，即RBT占持牌司机的百分比每增加10%，每10万名持牌司机的ARTC率就会下降0.15。此外，在西澳大利亚州，如果2011年1：2的比率（RBT与每年有执照的司机人数）翻一番，达到1：1的比率，我们估计每月的ARTC数量将减少约15。根据这些研究结果，我们认为，随着RBT的数量增加，愿意冒被发现酒后驾驶风险的司机数量减少，因为被发现的风险被认为更大。这反过来又导致抗逆转录病毒药物治疗中心的数量减少。本研究结果可为区域性银行业务决策提供重要依据。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
In this paper we explore the relationship between monthly random breath testing (RBT) rates (per 1000 licensed drivers) and alcohol-related traffic crash (ARTC) rates over time, across two Australian states: Queensland and Western Australia. We analyse the RBT, ARTC and licensed driver rates across 12 years; however, due to administrative restrictions, we model ARTC rates against RBT rates for the period July 2004 to June 2009.The Queensland data reveals that the monthly ARTC rate is almost flat over the five year period. Based on the results of the analysis, an average of 5.5 ARTCs per 100,000 licensed drivers are observed across the study period. For the same period, the monthly rate of RBTs per 1000 licensed drivers is observed to be decreasing across the study with the results of the analysis revealing no significant variations in the data.The comparison between Western Australia and Queensland shows that Queensland's ARTC monthly percent change (MPC) is 0.014 compared to the MPC of 0.47 for Western Australia. While Queensland maintains a relatively flat ARTC rate, the ARTC rate in Western Australia is increasing. Our analysis reveals an inverse relationship between ARTC RBT rates, that for every 10% increase in the percentage of RBTs to licensed driver there is a 0.15 decrease in the rate of ARTCs per 100,000 licenced drivers. Moreover, in Western Australia, if the 2011 ratio of 1:2 (RBTs to annual number of licensed drivers) were to double to a ratio of 1:1, we estimate the number of monthly ARTCs would reduce by approximately 15.Based on these findings we believe that as the number of RBTs conducted increases the number of drivers willing to risk being detected for drinking driving decreases, because the perceived risk of being detected is considered greater. This is turn results in the number of ARTCs diminishing. The results of this study provide an important evidence base for policy decisions for RBT operations. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.