Drivers of long-term precipitation and runoff variability in the southeastern USA
Drivers of long-term precipitation and runoff variability in the southeastern USA
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美国东南部长期降水和径流变化的驱动因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
P. Waylen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Engström;P. Waylen
从整体的角度分析了美国东南部（AL，GA，NC，SC和TN）的水文气候学，包括多种气候驱动因素。利用PRISM模型对1952-2011年18个流域的月降水和径流资料进行了单场主成分分析。结果表明，大西洋几十年涛动和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动是该区域水文气候变化的主要大气驱动因素，有时滞后几个月。它们的影响在秋季至春季最为强烈，这与研究区域南部的旱季相对应，从而增加了对本已有限的水资源的压力。北极涛动、北大西洋涛动和太平洋-北美模式在短期基础上变化，也显示出显著的，但时间上更分散的影响。洞察力也带来了正在进行的讨论，确认北极和北大西洋涛动的分离。调查结果可用于水资源预测，表明未来几个月的预期水量。
The hydroclimatology of the southeastern USA (AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN) is analyzed from a holistic perspective, including multiple climate drivers. Monthly precipitation modeled by the PRISM group and runoff data (1952–2011) from 18 basins are analyzed using a single-field based principal component’s analysis. Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main atmospheric drivers of hydroclimate variability in the region, sometimes operating at several months’ lag. Their influence is the strongest in the fall through spring, which corresponds with the dry season in the southern parts of the study area thereby increasing pressure on already limited water resources. The Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific-North American patterns vary on shorter-term bases, and also show a significant, but temporally more sporadic influence. Insight is also brought to the ongoing discussion, confirming the disassociation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation. Findings can be used in water resources forecasting, giving an indication of expected water volumes several months ahead.