Irreducible imprecision in atmospheric and oceanic simulations
Irreducible imprecision in atmospheric and oceanic simulations
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0702971104
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发表时间：
2007-05-22
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
McWilliams, James C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McWilliams, James C.
大气和海洋计算模拟模型通常成功地描绘了模仿自然的混沌时空模式、流动现象、动态平衡和平衡分布。这一成功是通过对离散算法、参数化和耦合贡献过程进行必要但非唯一的选择来实现的，这些过程将结构不稳定性引入模型。因此，我们应该预期在与自然的定量对应中存在一定程度的不可减少的不精确性，即使使用看似合理的模型和对几种经验测量的仔细校准（调整）。在精度成为问题的情况下（例如，在气候预报中），只有在系统设计的模型系列中进行的模拟集成才可以估计相关的不可约不精度水平。
Atmospheric and oceanic computational simulation models often successfully depict chaotic space-time patterns, flow phenomena, dynamical balances, and equilibrium distributions that mimic nature. This success is accomplished through necessary but nonunique choices for discrete algorithms, parameterizations, and coupled contributing processes that introduce structural instability into the model. Therefore, we should expect a degree of irreducible imprecision in quantitative correspondences with nature, even with plausibly formulated models and careful calibration (tuning) to several empirical measures. Where precision is an issue (e.g., in a climate forecast), only simulation ensembles made across systematically designed model families allow an estimate of the level of relevant irreducible imprecision.