The impact of extra-tropical transitioning on storm surge and waves in catastrophe risk modelling: application to the Japanese coastline
The impact of extra-tropical transitioning on storm surge and waves in catastrophe risk modelling: application to the Japanese coastline
复制标题
灾害风险建模中温带转变对风暴潮和波浪的影响：在日本海岸线的应用
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-016-2596-2
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
S. Khare
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Bruneau;J. Grieser;Thomas Loridan;E. Bellone;S. Khare
灾害风险模型用于评估和管理热带气旋等自然灾害的经济和社会影响。需要大量的事件模拟来生成有用的模型输出。例如，为了估计热带气旋风险模型中由风驱动的风暴潮和波浪造成的风险，需要计算效率高的风强迫参数表示，以生成大型集合。本文介绍了新的结果，包括明确表示的参数风模型，用于迫使风暴潮和波浪模拟在灾难风险建模环境中的热带外过渡的影响。热带以外的过渡在模拟日本海岸线的风险时尤为重要，因为大约40%袭击日本大陆的台风在登陆前正在过渡。使用的历史和理想化的轨迹集，我们比较最大的风暴潮和波的足迹沿着日本海岸线的模型，包括，不包括，明确表示的热带外过渡。我们发现，包括热带以外的过渡导致较低的风暴潮（10- 20%）和波浪（5- 15%）在日本南部海岸，与显着较高的风暴潮和波浪沿着北方海岸（25- 50%）。本文的结果表明，在日本沿海洪水风险的有效的风险评估必须考虑热带外的过渡过程。
Catastrophe risk models are used to assess and manage the economic and societal impacts of natural perils such as tropical cyclones. Large ensembles of event simulations are required to generate useful model output. For example, to estimate the risk due to wind-driven storm surge and waves in tropical cyclone risk models, computationally efficient parametric representations of the wind forcing are required to enable the generation of large ensembles. This paper presents new results on the impact of including explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning in parametric wind models used to force storm surge and wave simulations in a catastrophe risk modelling context. Extra-tropical transitioning is particularly important in modelling risk on the Japanese coastline, as roughly 40 % of typhoons hitting the Japanese mainland are transitioning before landfall. Using both a historical and idealized track set, we compare maximum storm surge and wave footprints along the Japanese coastline for models that include, and do not include, explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning. We find that the inclusion of extra-tropical transitioning leads to lower storm surge (10–20 %) and waves (5–15 %) on the southern Japanese coast, with significantly higher storm surge and waves along the northern coast (25–50 %). The results of this paper demonstrate that useful risk assessment of coastal flood risk in Japan must consider the extra-tropical transitioning process.
影响因子：
8
作者：
Saha, Suranjana;Moorthi, Shrinivas;Goldberg, Mitch
通讯作者：
Goldberg, Mitch