Sample-size requirements for developing strategies, based on the pupal/demographic survey, for the targeted control of dengue
Sample-size requirements for developing strategies, based on the pupal/demographic survey, for the targeted control of dengue
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DOI：
10.1179/136485906x105499
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发表时间：
2006-04-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Clark, GG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barrera, R;Amador, M;Clark, GG
几种方法来确定一个可靠的和实际的评估，在波多黎各的一个社区的埃及伊蚊puedes的数量所需的样本量进行了探讨。由于药物高度聚集，因此将数据拟合为负二项分布。经典的样本量确定的统计推断方法要求对3000个以上的场所进行抽样，以可靠地估计每人的平均人数（误差为15%）。在应用有限人口校正后，这一数字减少到1000-1200处。随着样本量的增加，数据库二次抽样模拟表明，在分别对186个和310个房舍进行抽样后，容器类型的平均相对丰度和每容器的平均pupestrian数的变异性大幅下降。采用序贯抽样方法检验女性感染者/人的数量至少为0.19（视为登革热流行阈值）或不大于0.10（任意设定为安全水平）的假设。在第一次调查中仅对25个场所进行了抽样，第二次调查中仅对125个场所进行了抽样，确定女性脓疱的密度高于流行阈值。因此，连续抽样大大减少了确定是否需要病媒控制所需的样本量。Ae的验证。登革热传播所需的埃及阈值可使登革热病媒监测和控制方案具有可行性和效率。
Several methods to determine the sample size required for a reliable and practical assessment of the number of Aedes aegypti pupae in a community in Puerto Rico have been explored. Because the pupae were highly aggregated, the data were fitted to a negative binomial distribution. Classical statistical-inference methods for sample-size determination demanded the sampling of > 3000 premises for a reliable estimation of the mean number of pupae/person (with a 15% error). This number was reduced to 1000-1200 premises after applying a finite-population correction. Database sub-sampling simulations, with increasing sample sizes, showed that the variability in the mean relative abundance of container types and in the mean number of pupae/container substantially decreased after sampling 186 and 310 premises, respectively. Sequential sampling was applied to test the hypotheses that the number of female pupae/person was at least 0.19 (considered the dengue epidemic threshold) or no greater than 0.10 (arbitrarily set as the safe level). After sampling only 25 premises in the first survey and 125 in the second, it was determined that the densities of female pupae were above the epidemic threshold. Thus, sequential sampling provided substantial reductions in the sample size required to determine if vector control was needed. Validation of the Ae. aegypti thresholds required for dengue transmission could confer viability and efficiency to dengue-vector surveillance and control programmes.