Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model
Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model
复制标题
中美核能消费预测：优化的结构自适应灰色模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2021.121928
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发表时间：
2021-09-07
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Li, Yao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ding, Song;Tao, Zui;Li, Yao
准确预测核能对于确保可靠的电力供应和缓解环境退化问题至关重要。然而，由于核时间序列的复杂性、非线性和不确定性，给建模带来了困难。为此，本文从理论上给出了广义时间响应函数，并根据辛普森准则对背景值进行了精确修正，提出了一种优化的结构自适应灰色模型。通过蒙特卡罗模拟和概率密度分析(PDA)分析了该模型的优点，揭示了该模型的稳健性和可靠性。为了验证和验证的目的，将优化后的模型应用于中国和美国的核能消费预测，并与其他流行的灰色模型、传统计量经济学技术和人工智能的七个基准模型进行了比较。两个案例的实验结果一致表明，从PDA和水平精度两个不同的角度来看，新技术的性能都明显优于竞争对手。此外，对不同预测视野的进一步讨论表明，该新模型仍然能够提供准确的预测，具有坚实的稳健性和较高的可靠性。结果表明，该模型是一种实用的、有发展前景的核能消费预测模型。(C)2021年爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Forecasting nuclear energy accurately is vital to ensure reliable electricity supply and alleviate environmental degradation problems. However, it is difficult to model the nuclear time series due to its complexity, nonlinearity, and uncertainty. To this end, this paper put forward an optimized structure adaptive grey model by theoretically providing the generalized time response function and accurately modifying the background value based on Simpson's rule. Moreover, Monte-Carlo Simulation and probability density analysis (PDA) are employed to analyze the proposed model's merits, revealing its robustness and reliability. For validation and verification purposes, the optimized model is implemented to predict nuclear energy consumption in China and America, compared to seven benchmark models involving other prevalent grey models, conventional econometric technology, and artificial intelligence. Experimental results from two cases consistently demonstrate that the novel technique significantly outperforms the competitors from two different perspectives of PDA and level accuracy. Besides, further discussion over different forecasting horizons reveals that this new model can still deliver accurate forecasts with solid robustness and high reliability. Consequently, the proposed model is validated as a practical and promising model for forecasting nuclear energy consumption. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.