Overview: Strategies for Causal Attribution: Methodological Briefs - Impact Evaluation No. 6
Overview: Strategies for Causal Attribution: Methodological Briefs - Impact Evaluation No. 6
复制标题
概述：因果归因策略：方法简述 - 影响评估第 6 号
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Rogers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Rogers
影响评价的基本要素之一是，它不仅衡量或描述已经发生的变化，而且还设法了解特定干预措施(即方案或政策)在产生这些变化方面的作用。这个过程被称为因果归因。在影响评估中，因果归因有三大策略：1)估计反事实；2)检查变化理论中明确的因果关系证据的一致性；3)通过逻辑的、以证据为基础的过程排除替代解释。因果归因的“最佳匹配”策略取决于评估环境以及正在评估的内容。
One of the essential elements of an impact evaluation is that it not only measures or describes changes that have occurred but also seeks to understand the role of particular interventions (i.e., programmes or policies) in producing these changes. This process is known as causal attribution. In impact evaluation, there are three broad strategies for causal attribution: 1) estimating the counterfactual; 2) checking the consistency of evidence for the causal relationships made explicit in the theory of change; and 3) ruling out alternative explanations, through a logical, evidence-based process. The ‘best fit’ strategy for causal attribution depends on the evaluation context as well as what is being evaluated.