Projections of Future Trends in Biogeochemical Conditions in the Northwest Atlantic Using CMIP5 Earth System Models
Projections of Future Trends in Biogeochemical Conditions in the Northwest Atlantic Using CMIP5 Earth System Models
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DOI：
10.1080/07055900.2017.1401973
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Gilbert, Denis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lavoie, Diane;Lambert, Nicolas;Gilbert, Denis
我们利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告中提供的8个地球系统模型（ESMs）的结果，分析了未来50年西北大西洋生物地球化学条件的预测变化。我们使用代表性浓度路径8.5情景在大区域和更具体地点的100-400米深度范围内对预估变化进行了研究，以评估使用这些输出来强制建立圣劳伦斯湾区域气候降尺度模型的相关性。溶解氧（减少）、pH值（减少）和硝酸盐（虽然总体上是负的，但变化不定）的预测趋势代表了该地区最近观察到的趋势的延续。对于初级生产，由于不同模型的趋势差异很大，因此无法得出确定的结论。区域模式横向边界附近趋势的一致性使我们得出结论，ESM趋势可以用来建立未来的边界条件，以评估气候变化的区域影响，尽管苏格兰大陆架结果的不确定性将大于圣劳伦斯湾。
We use the results from eight of the Earth System Models (ESMs) made available for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze the projected changes in biogeochemical conditions over the next 50 years in the northwest Atlantic. We looked at the projected changes using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario in the 100-400 m depth range over a large region and at more specific locations to assess the relevance of using these outputs to force a regional climate downscaling model of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The projected trends for dissolved oxygen (decrease), pH (decrease), and nitrate (variable although negative in general) represent a continuation of the recently observed trends in the area. For primary production, no firm conclusions can be drawn because of large differences in the trends from one model to another. The consistency of the trends near the regional model lateral boundaries leads us to conclude that the ESM trends can be used to set up future boundary conditions to evaluate regional impacts of climate change although the uncertainty of the results for the Scotian Shelf will be greater than for the Gulf of St. Lawrence.