A realist view of aging, mortality, and future longevity
A realist view of aging, mortality, and future longevity
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00172.x
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发表时间：
2007-06-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Olshansky, S. Jay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carnes, Bruce A.;Olshansky, S. Jay
方法论和哲学的差异导致科学家们在分析相同的死亡率数据时，得出了关于死亡率轨迹行为、衰老本质和人类寿命未来的截然不同的结论。本说明描述了作者对这些问题的看法，综合起来可以称为“现实主义”立场。按照这种观点，如果在控制老龄化方面没有取得重大进展，预期寿命不太可能超过平均 85 岁。我们发现了一些与我们的工作相关的神话：1) 达到 85 岁的平均预期寿命是对人类长寿的悲观展望，2) 物种拥有无法通过人类干预改变的内在死亡时间表，3) 人类寿命未来进程的现实情景基于生物决定论的概念，4) 现实主义者断言，存在一个年龄，超过这个年龄就没有幸存者，5) 假设的生物障碍延长寿命的观点已被科学研究和驳斥，并且 6) 现实主义者声称出生时的预期寿命不能超过 85 岁。在消除这些神话的过程中，我们希望为我们的生物人口学思想提供更准确的表述。
Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging, and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors’views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a “realist” position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advances in the control of aging. We identify a number of myths that have been attached to our work: 1) Reaching an average life expectancy of 85 years is a pessimistic outlook for human longevity, 2) Species possess an intrinsic mortality schedule that cannot be modified by human intervention, 3) Realist scenarios of the future course of human longevity are based on notions of biological determinism, 4) Realists assert that there is an age beyond which there can be no survivors, 5) Hypothesized biological barriers to longer life spans have been scientifically studied and refuted, and 6) Realists claim that life expectancy at birth cannot exceed 85 years. In dispelling these myths, we hope to provide a more accurate representation of our school of biodemographic thought.