Humpback whale abundance in the North Pacific estimated by photographic capture-recapture with bias correction from simulation studies
Humpback whale abundance in the North Pacific estimated by photographic capture-recapture with bias correction from simulation studies
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1748-7692.2010.00444.x
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Yamaguchi, Manami
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barlow, Jay;Calambokidis, John;Yamaguchi, Manami
我们估计丰富的座头鲸在北太平洋的捕获-再捕获方法使用超过18,000侥幸识别照片收集在2004-2006年。我们对丰度的最佳估计是21，808（CV = 0.04）。我们使用模拟模型估计了该值的偏差。出生和死亡违反了封闭群体的假设，导致偏倚为+5.2%，样本中排除小牛导致偏倚为-10.5%，未能实现随机地理采样导致偏倚为-0.4%，错过匹配导致偏倚为+9.3%。已知的性别偏置采样有利于男性在繁殖区没有增加显着的偏见，如果两性比例采样在饲养区。在考虑了+3.5%的净偏差后，我们对丰度的最佳估计为21，063。这一估计值可能低于真实丰度，原因是另外两个偏倚来源：被采样概率的个体异质性（未量化）和可能存在未知和未采样的繁殖区（-8.7%）。结果证实，北太平洋的座头鲸总数量继续增加，现在超过了捕鲸前的一些估计数量。
We estimated the abundance of humpback whales in the North Pacific by capture-recapture methods using over 18,000 fluke identification photographs collected in 2004-2006. Our best estimate of abundance was 21,808 (CV = 0.04). We estimated the biases in this value using a simulation model. Births and deaths, which violate the assumption of a closed population, resulted in a bias of +5.2%, exclusion of calves in samples resulted in a bias of -10.5%, failure to achieve random geographic sampling resulted in a bias of -0.4%, and missed matches resulted in a bias of +9.3%. Known sex-biased sampling favoring males in breeding areas did not add significant bias if both sexes are proportionately sampled in the feeding areas. Our best estimate of abundance was 21,063 after accounting for a net bias of +3.5%. This estimate is likely to be lower than the true abundance due to two additional sources of bias: individual heterogeneity in the probability of being sampled (unquantified) and the likely existence of an unknown and unsampled breeding area (-8.7%). Results confirm that the overall humpback whale population in the North Pacific has continued to increase and is now greater than some prior estimates of prewhaling abundance.