Incidence of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in San Francisco, 1980-1983.
Incidence of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in San Francisco, 1980-1983.
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1980-1983 年旧金山获得性免疫缺陷综合症的发病率。
DOI：
10.1093/infdis/152.1.152
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发表时间：
1985
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Ziegler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Moss;P. Bacchetti;D. Osmond;S. Dritz;D. Abrams;M. Conant;P. Volberding;J. Ziegler
获得性免疫缺陷综合症(艾滋病)的发病数据是根据旧金山传染病管理局保存的监测文件提供的。从1980年第四季度确诊的第一例艾滋病病例到1983年第四季度，旧金山居民的艾滋病发病率稳步上升。在一九八三年最后一季，新症的诊断率为每月25宗。报告的发病率在1983年年中下降，但这种下降可能是病例发现的产物。平滑后的发病率显示出稳定的渐进上升，这与二次曲线或指数曲线的逼近效果一样好。在旧金山确诊的患者中，99%是同性恋或双性恋男性。1983年最后一个季度，同性恋或双性恋男子的累积发病率估计为每10万人中有770人死亡。艾滋病发病率随年龄增长而增加，且增加幅度大于其他性传播疾病。艾滋病和梅毒患者之间年龄分布的差异表明，艾滋病的易感性随着年龄的增长而增加，或者与艾滋病相关的平均潜伏期比之前认为的更长。
Incidence data for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) are presented on the basis of a surveillance file maintained by the San Francisco Bureau of Communicable Disease Control. The incidence of AIDS among residents of San Francisco rose steadily from the first case diagnosed in the last quarter of 1980 through the last quarter of 1983. New cases were diagnosed at a rate of 25 per month in the last quarter of 1983. Reported incidence declined in mid-1983, but the decline was probably a case-finding artifact. Smoothed incidence rates show a steady progressive rise, which is approximated equally well by quadratic or exponential curves. Among the patients diagnosed in San Francisco, 99% were homosexual or bisexual men. The cumulative incidence rate among homosexual or bisexual men was estimated to be 770 per 100,000 in the last quarter of 1983. The incidence rate of AIDS increased with age, and the increase was greater than that found with other sexually transmitted diseases. The difference in the age distributions between cases of AIDS and syphilis suggests either that susceptibility to AIDS increases with age or that the average latency associated with AIDS is longer than previously thought.