The Caspian Sea Level forced by the atmospheric circulation, as observed and modelled
The Caspian Sea Level forced by the atmospheric circulation, as observed and modelled
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DOI：
10.1016/j.quaint.2007.03.008
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发表时间：
2007-10-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Leroy, Suzanne A. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arpe, Klaus;Leroy, Suzanne A. G.
里海平面（CSL）经历了大幅波动，对沿海地区的人口和经济产生了广泛影响。 CSL 的变化主要受伏尔加河流域降水变化的影响。夏季降水起主导作用，可以解释20世纪30年代（下降）和1977年后（上升）发生的两次重大事件。由于温室气体浓度增加，预计全球变暖会产生影响；特别是伏尔加河流域的降水预计将增加。然而，里海（CS）本身蒸发量的增加或多或少地补偿了这一现象。结果表明，马克斯·普朗克气象研究所（汉堡）模型能够非常真实地模拟与 CSL 变化相关的大多数过程，即在观测数据的不确定性范围内。模拟表明 21 世纪 CSL 略有增加；但由于伏尔加河流域降水量变化较大，目前无法对 CSL 的未来发展充满信心。 (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd 和 INQUA。版权所有。
The Caspian Sea Level (CSL) has experienced large fluctuations with wide-reaching impacts on the population on the coastal regions and on the economy. The CSL variability is dominated by the variability of precipitation over the Volga River basin. The precipitation during summer plays a dominant role and can explain the two major events that happened in the 1930s (drop) and after 1977 (rise). Impacts are expected from global warming due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations; especially the precipitation over the Volga River basin is expected to increase. It is, however, compensated more or less by increased evaporation over the Caspian Sea (CS) itself. It is shown that the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg) models are able to simulate most processes relevant for the CSL variability quite realistically, i.e., within the uncertainty of observational data. The simulations suggest a slight increase of the CSL in the 21st century; but due to a large variability of precipitation over the Volga River basin a statement concerning the future development of the CSL cannot be made with confidence at the moment. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.