The Annual Runoff Variation Trends in the Three Headstreams of Tarim River
The Annual Runoff Variation Trends in the Three Headstreams of Tarim River
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发表时间：
2011
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通讯作者：
Shimeng Wei
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作者：
Shimeng Wei
基于塔里木河源区5个水文站1957 ~ 2008年的年径流量观测资料，采用非参数检验、R/S分析和小波分析等方法，研究了塔里木河源区径流量的年趋势、突变、周期和未来期趋势。结果表明：(1)跳跃点发生在1993年的阿克苏河和叶尔干河均表现出显著的阶跃变化，而和田河则表现出轻微的阶跃下降趋势，且不显著；(2)阿克苏河径流量呈显著增长趋势，而雅尔干河径流量呈不显著增长趋势，根据阿克苏河和雅尔干河的赫斯特指数（阿克苏：0.7770.5，雅尔干河：0.485 70.5）预测，未来一段时间阿克苏河径流量将保持增长趋势，雅尔干河径流量将呈相反趋势；和田河径流呈小幅下降趋势，赫斯特指数为0.501 4，近似等于0.5，说明年径流过程处于混沌状态，无法进行长期预测。(3)阿克苏河和和田河的原生期分别为6a、18a、22a和9a、17a，而叶尔干河的原生期分别为3a、9a、13a和17a。
Based on the observed annual runoff data of 5 hydrological stations in Tarim River headstreams areas from 1957 to 2008,the paper studied the annual trend,abrupt change,periodicity and the coming period trends by use of the nonparametric test,R/S analysis and wavelet analysis and so on.The results showed that:(1) Both Aksu river and Yarkand river of which the jump points happened at 1993 hold significant step change,but Hetian river expressed a slightly decreasing step trend and is not significant;(2)Aksu river holds a significant increasing trend but Yarkand river the trend is not,and based on the Hurst exponents(Aksu:0.7770.5,Yarkand:0.485 70.5) of two the streams,the annual runoff of Aksu river will keep an increasing trend and Yarkand river will be in reverse in the coming period;Hetian river has a slightly decreasing trend and the Hurst exponent is 0.501 4,which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos,then it can not be taken a long-term predict.(3) The primary periods of Aksu river and Hetian river are 6a,18a,22a and 9a,17a respectively,otherwise,Yarkant river is at 3a,9a,13a and 17a.