The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update
The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update
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DOI：
10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1
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发表时间：
2008-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Stark, Colin P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guzzetti, Fausto;Peruccacci, Silvia;Stark, Colin P.
通过全面的文献检索，编制了一个包含2626次导致浅层滑坡和泥石流的降雨事件的全球数据库。利用降雨和滑坡信息更新了1980年尼尔·凯恩（Nel Caine）所确定的可能导致浅层滑坡和泥石流的最小降雨历时和强度的相关性。降雨强度 - 历时（ID）值以对数坐标绘制，结果表明，随着降雨历时的增加，可能引发浅层边坡破坏的最小平均强度在10分钟到35天的历时范围内呈线性下降。确定了可能引发浅层滑坡和泥石流的最小ID值。采用一种客观的统计技术从降雨数据中获得了阈值曲线。为了应对不同气候区域可能导致浅层边坡破坏的降雨强度和历时的差异，将降雨信息根据年平均降水量和雨日标准值进行了归一化。气候信息来自东安格利亚大学气候研究中心编制的全球气候数据集。所获得的全球ID阈值明显低于凯恩（1980年，《地理学年鉴A》62卷：23 - 27页）提出的阈值，也低于文献中提出的其他全球阈值。新的全球ID阈值可用于基于全球降水测量的全球滑坡预警系统，在没有本地和区域阈值的情况下使用。
A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980. The rainfall intensity-duration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions, the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23-27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not available..