Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA
Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA
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使用基于代理的模型检查美国俄勒冈州易发生火灾地区的森林管理成果
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Csuti
中科院分区：
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作者：
T. Spies;E. White;A. Ager;J. Kline;J. Bolte;Emily Platt;K. Olsen;Robert J. Pabst;A. Barros;J. Bailey;S. Charnley;A. Morzillo;J. Koch;M. Steen;Peter H. Singleton;J. Sulzman;Cynthia L Schwartz;B. Csuti
易发火灾的景观为管理者和决策者在发展适应性行为和制度方面提出了许多挑战。我们使用了一个耦合的人类和自然系统框架和一个基于主体的景观模型来研究在俄勒冈州东部喀斯喀特地区一个容易发生火灾的多所有权景观中，不同的管理方案是如何影响火灾和生态系统服务指标的。我们的模型结合了现有的植被演替和火灾蔓延模型以及来自土地所有者决策的原始实证研究的信息。我们的研究结果表明，在50年的时间里，不同的管理策略会对火灾、社会经济和生态系统服务指标的景观结果产生不同的影响。例如，有联邦修复处理的场景比没有处理的场景发生的严重程度略低；与没有管理相比，经过修复处理的荒地-城市交界地带的房屋暴露在火灾中的几率也略低。在火灾多发的年份，治疗似乎比火灾较少的年份更有效地减少严重程度较高的火灾。在目前的管理方案下，联邦土地上的木材生产可以维持至少50年。在加速恢复的情况下，木材产量下降是因为满足当前林分结构处理目标的地区短缺。恢复结果（例如，拥有大型防火树木的开阔森林）与需要茂密的老森林的物种栖息地之间的权衡是显而易见的。例如，北方斑点猫头鹰（Strix occidentalis）的筑巢栖息地比例在恢复50年后比未管理的情况下有所减少。然而，经过50年的积极管理，白头啄木鸟（Leuconotopicus albolarvatus）的适应力较强的森林结构和栖息地数量有所增加。尽管发生了严重的野火，但在没有管理的情况下，这片土地上储存的碳比有管理的要多。我们的研究结果和模型的进一步应用可以在协作环境中使用，以促进讨论和制定易发火灾景观的政策和实践。
Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees) and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus) was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than with management, despite the occurrence of high-severity wildfire. Our results and further applications of the model could be used in collaborative settings to facilitate discussion and development of policies and practices for fire-prone landscapes.