Comparing epidemic tuberculosis in demographically distinct heterogeneous populations
Comparing epidemic tuberculosis in demographically distinct heterogeneous populations
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DOI：
10.1016/s0025-5564(02)00133-5
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发表时间：
2002-11-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Kirschner, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murphy, BM;Singer, BH;Kirschner, D
国家之间结核病流行程度存在很大差异，我们试图确定这些差异的可能原因。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个结核分枝杆菌感染的流行病学模型，以探讨宿主遗传学和人口统计学因素对流行性结核病的影响。我们讨论了这种方法的总体框架，并提出了分析结果，以确定影响结核病稳态患病率和发病率的重要参数。然后，我们使用我们的模型的数值模拟，以观察在人口水平上的结核病动态的遗传易感亚群的影响。最后，我们在两种人口统计学环境中模拟了遗传异质性人群中的感染：印度（结核病患病率高的典型人群）和美国（结核病患病率低的典型人群）。结果表明，传播参数的变化、遗传上易受感染的人口比例和人口因素强烈影响结核病流行率和发病率。(C)2002年爱思唯尔科技有限公司All rights reserved.
There is wide variation in endemic tuberculosis (TB) levels between countries and we seek to identify possible causes of these differences. In this study we present an epidemiological model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to investigate the effects of host genetics and demographic factors on epidemic TB. We discuss the general framework for this approach and present analytical results to identify important parameters affecting steady-state prevalence and incidence rates of TB disease. We then use numerical simulations of our model to observe the effects of a genetically susceptible subpopulation on TB disease dynamics at the population level. Finally, we simulate infection within a genetically heterogeneous population in two demographic settings: India (a typical population with high TB prevalence) and the USA (a typical population with low TB prevalence). Results show that changes in transmission parameters, the fraction of the population genetically susceptible to infection, and demographic factors strongly affect TB prevalence and incidence rates. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.