Impact of ENSO 2016-17 on regional climate and malaria vector dynamics in Tanzania
Impact of ENSO 2016-17 on regional climate and malaria vector dynamics in Tanzania
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2016-17 年 ENSO 对坦桑尼亚区域气候和疟疾媒介动态的影响
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab26c7
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Kreppel K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kreppel K
包括厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 和印度洋偶极子 (IOD) 在内的大规模气候变率模式已被证明会对热带地区蚊媒疾病（包括疟疾）产生重大影响。然而，人们对 ENSO 和 IOD 引起的区域气候变化以及最终蚊子丰度和行为的机制级联知之甚少。蚊子的种群动态、行为及其传播疾病的潜力都对微气候条件敏感。 ENSO（厄尔尼诺）的暖期往往与降水量增加和各种媒介传播疾病的爆发有关，而冷期（拉尼娜）可能会在东非短暂降雨期间导致干旱。在坦桑尼亚的 Kilombero 山谷研究了按蚊种群动态和寻找宿主行为对 ENSO 以及由此产生的微气候条件的敏感性。从2016年6月到2017年9月，观测到了ENSO 2016-17造成的雨季时间和强度以及温度的变化。使用美国疾病控制与预防中心 (CDC) 的室内光诱捕器和室内外的电灭蚊器来收集蚊子。阿拉伯按蚊和毛按蚊的丰度和叮咬行为的变化与气候和微气候相关。厄尔尼诺现象对气候和蚊子数量的影响尚不清楚。然而，由于拉尼娜现象，研究区经历了干旱，两种媒介物种均大幅减少。一个。 arabiensis 密度在较高温度下保持更稳定，并且在户外的数量相对于 An. arabiensis 而言更高。富内斯图斯。对于这两个物种来说，室内温度和季节决定了它们寻找寄主的位置，较高的温度和雨季迫使它们外出。该研究证实了ENSO和微气候对疟疾媒介丰度和宿主寻找行为的影响，并提出了预测未来ENSO对疟疾风险和媒介控制影响的假设。我们对温暖条件下户外叮咬率较高的观察表明，室内病媒控制策略在此期间可能会相应地变得不那么有效。
Large scale modes of climate variability, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), have been shown to significantly impact mosquito-borne diseases in the Tropics, including malaria. However, the mechanistic cascade from ENSO and the IOD, to induced changes in regional climate and ultimately mosquito abundance and behaviour is poorly understood. Mosquito population dynamics, behaviour and their potential to transmit disease are all sensitive to micro-climatic conditions. The warm phase of ENSO (El Niño) tends to be associated with increased precipitation and outbreaks of various vector-borne diseases, while the cold phase (La Niña) can cause drought during the short rains over East Africa. The sensitivity of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and host-seeking behaviour to ENSO and to the resulting micro-climatic conditions, were investigated in the Kilombero Valley in Tanzania. From June 2016 to September 2017, changes in the timing and intensity of the rainy seasons and temperature due to the ENSO 2016–17 were observed. Mosquitoes were collected using Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps indoors and mosquito electrocuting traps in-and outdoors. Changes in abundance and biting behaviour of Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus were correlated with climate and micro-climate. The impacts of El Niño on climate and mosquito abundance were not clear. However, the study area experienced a drought due to La Niña during which both vector species declined significantly. An. arabiensis densities stayed more stable at higher temperatures and were found in higher numbers outdoors with respect to An. funestus. For both species, indoor temperature and season determined their host-seeking location, with higher temperatures and the wet season driving them outside. The study confirmed the influence of ENSO and micro-climate on malaria vector abundance and host-seeking behaviour, generating hypotheses for predicting the impact of future ENSO on malaria risk and vector control. Our observation of higher outdoor biting during warmer conditions indicates that indoor vector control strategies may become proportionally less effective during this time.